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0 pointskipchak2d ago0 comments

The pro argument I find most convincing is that the US's interest is mostly in restricting oil going from Venezuela to China, which previously was the majority destination of of Venezuela's imports. A similar case can be made for Iran.

China possibly expecting something to this effect has recently built up both it's coal and renewables capacity, as well as an extremely large SPR.

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mrguyorama2d ago· 1 in thread

Any claim at all that Trump is running any sort of strategy against China blows right up the second you look at anything else he has done.

All his bullshit market screwing, tariffs, poor diplomacy has pushed everyone right into China's sphere of influence.

Instead of competing with the products China creates, we leave them out of our own market while the rest of the world continues to buy from China.

The stupid as hell war against Iran has eliminated our stocks of munitions, leaving the pacific basically undefended against China. We pulled weapons out of our Pacific allies to go waste them in the desert.

There is no cohesive strategy and China has been preparing for us to cut off their oil for over a decade now, and has made massive strides in the development of independent energy like Solar to protect them.

kipchakOP2d ago

imo this sort of strategy is not decided at the POTUS level, or at least there's consensus. For example during Biden's term the trade war largely persisted or expanded.

Competing in terms of production is realistically not an option (Triffin Dilemma, strong currency means exports other than tech/finance are inherently noncompetitive). Competitive exports would require giving up the dollar as a unilateral reserve currency, and China for the reverse reasons, at least for now, does not seem to want the Yuan to be a reserve currency. My personal read is both sides wish for something like the current system to persist but on more favorable terms.

I agree China has been actively taking steps for this scenario, but that they're continuing to make strides seems to indicate it is still an issue. I think we're still in the thick of it before a victor is conclusively decided either way.

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