It’s the kind of thing that would suck all enjoyment out of watching sports for me personally. I may well be in a minority though, possibly an old person thing too

There could easily be. There's no reason you couldn't publish some Elo-like thing on teams or players, if that was your interest - you don't need gambling to get a good idea of who the favorite is. But the interest is in gambling, so most people inclined to publish such a thing probably bet themselves/sell it as a product to gamblers.

I read your statement and my reaction is what you describe is less regulated than sports betting. For example, in sports betting there are laws by major leagues that players can not bet on games they are in. On prediction markets, if someone has insider knowledge, or can control whatever verification source is set for a bet, they can win (I believe there was an article posted earlier about some journalist reporting on a bomb that fell on an area and was pressured to change the wording to say it fell or was bombed). Additionally, as some of the prediction market wagers have weird grey areas, there are predictions that have additional sub text added after a market has been open/wages have been made which completely change the bet - that is just fast and loose and less regulation IMO

If Poly and Kalshi were actually prediction markets, then betting on a person getting shot and then murdering them yourself would both be allowed (by corporation only) and even encouraged. Because this is exactly what a perfect prediction is - you predict and then that happens with 100% guarantee. You are the best predictor and win.

But if Poly and Kalshi are gambling joints, then of course fixing gambling bets is no no, and that is what actually happens. They ban wins of market predictors who actually correctly predicted something but did it by fixing the game. A market prediction service wouldn't care about that, but gambling joint would.

So where are those regulations?

Lol. This is some quality sv psychosis content.

But ok, let’s follow your thought process. Couldn’t someone place a bet on a sporting event and then murder a key player? Wouldn’t all the same laws be triggered?

Laws against criminal activity aren’t regulations. Regulations are limitations and oversight requirements on business activities.

> I think prediction markets could serve a similar to a futures markets and have a functional purpose in the economy. It could be useful to generate real time estimates of the probability of some events that no one can control and have real economic consequences, like a hurricane.

Even though nobody can control them, some people can predict them better than others. (Meteorologists with good models and supercomputers, etc.) In general it's impossible to prevent the appearance of insider trading in prediction markets, and it's also impossible -- unless you massively restrict what people can bet on -- to prevent people from doing things for bets to resolve in their favor, which turns those "markets" into "bounties." (The same guys who theorized prediction markets were the ones who theorized assassination markets.)

They're fundamentally broken and the fact that they're allowed is a sign and symptom of a dysfunctional society.

> it's probably for the best that your counterparty doesn't also control the platform

But doesn't Polymarket et al own their own platforms, just like Betfair owns their platform? There is no P2P going on, even if some markets seem to advertise themselves as such so again, seems like the same just minus gambling regulations?

Why would prediction markets do a better job of predicting hurricanes than, say, meteorologists, weather stations, and satellite information?

All evidence I’ve seen shows mainstream prediction markets devolve quickly into gambling and related corruption while predicting nothing other than conventional wisdom. especially about real-time facts. The prediction markets on the NBA Finals game four this year were completely useless.

Futures role is not "generate real time estimates of the probability" and never was. They have two roles: actual contracts to deliver later at set price and high risk trading (yes, some peoples use of it is gambling). Futures markets at do in fact have the actual market component. Prediction markets don't.

If you want meteorological prediction, you are way better off buying meteorological prediction from a company that sells meteorological predictions.

It is not pretend, it is technically correct (the best kind of correct). Redefining what gambling is, is a different problem.

... anddddd its gone

I'm not sure about Kalshi, however on most sports betting sites you actually are betting against the house. The betting sites all have in-house models (or piggyback off other sites) that are much better at predicting odds than the general public. If someone is making money then the sites just place limits on that account so they're not losing money.

In a casino you can bet against other people too. Nonetheless, the house always wins and takes its cut.

There's an old phrase that says something like "Look around the table, if you cant see the mark you're it." - if you think you are not betting against the house on a gambling site, you're VERY it.

Until you’re flagged for some vague reason and support/fraud can’t help you.

have you tried to turn crypto into cash money in a real bank account? have you tried to do it with large amounts? would you describe that process as easy?

Having verified somebody's government ID doesn't actually factor into chargeback decisions and outcomes, not least because many forms of online KYC practiced today in the US are pretty laughable from a security point of view.

because no one's ever had their wallet/purse with their ID in it stolen?

Plus a 2% fee charged on deposit.

Whilst it is technically a salary, since the business is wholly owned by her and her family it is effectively a dividend, so it isn't quite accurate to compare it to CEO's of non-wholly owned private or public companies. Other CEO's might have gotten paid more since they might own enough stocks in the company to receive dividends, or share awards etc...

> An eye opening industry - I'm sure there are businesses out there that pretend to be one thing (pub, club, etc), but their primary profit source is gambling.

Having worked in such a "business" - the problem is rents. When everyone else around you has a slot machine or two, landlords raise the rents (because they see what their neighbor landlord can get away with). And now, you as a legitimate pub owner have to choose, do you raise the beer prices yet again, or do you put up a slot machine yourself?

And sooner or later, depending on the greediness of the landlord, you have to choose between putting up a slot machine or closing down outright.

Gambling is an incredibly corrosive force. Not just to the gamblers themselves (wtf, I heard there are triple-zero roulette tables in Vegas these days?), but also to everyone and everything surrounding it.

I agree, some level of allowing gambling makes sense, gambling can even be observed in the animal kingdom, but it absolutely needs to be regulated.

This was with their credit card. You're going to get demolished if you start bouncing gambling debt on a credit card.

I'm guessing that at some point, probably not very long from now, credit cards are going to cut down on this. They don't want to be held responsible for a bunch of debt from gamblers, when they've already paid the sites.

At some point, the fees won't be worth the combination of PR and actually losing money from bankruptcies / delinquencies.

Loan sharks that use threats still exist, non-bank personal lending funds use cold calling and connections with bankers and use non-staff third party callers to distance themselves from the consequences and reputation of threatening with violence.

So it's not like people need to go to shady lenders in the first place, they can be pipelined from normal credit card debt into less scrupulous debt collectors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMntLU1bNE0

You see sins. Politicians see sin taxes, political will to spin up regulatory beurocracies, etc, etc.

A cash advance is taking physical cash out with your credit card at an ATM or bank teller. Making an online purchase (which depositing money into your Kalshi account is) is therefore not a cash advance.