I think Evans is completely wrong. There are only 2 truly frontier models. (at least for now). And Anthropic seems to be leaving OpenAI behind so there might be only 1 in the near future. (which is scary/dangerous)
Truly fascinating ecosystem and community in general, as experiences differ so wildly. Anthropic's models seems far behind OpenAI to me, especially when you get into "Pro" territory, and there doesn't seem to be any worthy competition to Pro Mode available at all.
And this is said with someone who use both platforms, and spend a lot of my day interacting with agents and LLMs in various ways. The interesting part is that probably so do you too, and probably your experience and what you share lines up with what you experience! Yet we come away with basically opposite takeaways :) I don't think either of us are wrong either, somehow.
I've noticed that depending on how you talk to it, you get wildly different outputs. This seems to happen less with Opus: it mostly understand what I want. GPT is often a bit too literal.
Just my two cents.
Yeah, exact prompting matters a lot, seemingly more than people think. There is definitely tradeoffs between how literal the models takes the prompts, on one hand it's useful for the model to ignore their own instinct when you know better, so they don't go chasing geese randomly, but on the other hand it's useful sometimes when they self-direct, when you misworded something and it's obvious you meant something different because of the context, and similar things. They're basically good at different things.
Really agree every model isn't equal and they aren't as interchangeable without adjusting how you prompt them as people seem to think.
At which point it’s fair to reject the commoditization label.
Also missing from these discussions are e.g. Qwen, which is at least as good as one back from OpenAI or Anthropic’s frontiers.
I wish there was a case where I find Evans is wrong. As far as my memory served me, I failed to record a single one.
I disagree that Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google are "well" behind. If anything the frontier model advantage seems to be at best 6 - 9 months. And that the Chinese model are all doing well.
One of Steve Jobs's line, "It is a feature, not a product." Even if Apple were a generation behind or 1 year behind frontier model. The advantage of default is enough to hold a lot of its user.
To put it simply, even if OpenAI or Anthropic were better, there is zero chances they would topple Apple in hardware sales, user or ecosystem. On the other hand, even if Apple's AI were 6 - 9 months or a generation behind, most user would settle for it and damage OpenAI / Anthropic.
Do you mean Google's AI with Apple wrappers? Apple's in-house AI is further behind Google, amd very far from the frontier according to your ranking. IMO, Google is on the frontier - I recall Altman calling for an OpenAI all-hands-on deck when Gemini was released because of how good it was compared to ChatGPT. I also suspect Google has the lowest operating expenses due to scale, experience and luck/planning (TPUs), there will come a time when AI investments will slow down, and the cost of revenue will become more important.
If anything Apple should notice it is Anthropic has got a really good marketing team and it would be no shame if they pick a trick or two from them.
employees will always suffer.
It's like the difference to talking to two smartest kids in a class, but one really belongs a grade higher - and the other hasn't learned yet to ask the questions that encourage it to dig in that little bit more for the additional multi-order effects.
I didn’t use it on big enough tasks to notice any improvement.
I had been hitting plan limits pretty regularly, but fixed it by changing my workflow. That also increased the success rate of claude by an order of magnitude.
But what I think a lot of people miss is that the market for the truly bleeding edge (developing bio-tech, building the most sophisticated software stacks (probably with a tilt towards simulation, GPU kernel optimization, etc)) is not the whole market.
There's a plethora of use-cases for models that are not on the bleeding edge. If I can solve my relatively simple problems with an off-the-shelf model for a minuscule fraction of the cost of the frontier, I'm going to.
Its somewhat of a myth that you need the most advanced, expensive model for software development.
Fable might well be a better model but it’s too expensive for everyday AI use. Definitely if we’re talking about the kind of stuff you’re going to want to do on your phone. Even for coding, I’m not going to reach for Fable (well, when I can…) for 95% of the work I do.
I don’t believe a mature AI industry is going to have a one size fits all, single winner.
Anthropic and OpenAI are far behind state of the art for the entire curve except the “extremely expensive for barely measurable improvements” part.
GLM is probably the third most expensive frontier model (benchmarks and reviews will say for sure), and is apparently ~Opus 4.6 for 10% the inference cost.
The last I checked, qwen was still owning the 24-32GiB RAM range (it runs reasonably without a GPU!) and somewhere around 3.5-4 generation models.
Also, even anthropic says Mythos ~= ChatGPT 5.5, so it’s unlikely either one is leaving the other behind. The big problem they both have is they asked for the government to gate keep model releases and use cases, and their wish was granted.
That’s knocked them back 6 months already. Anthropic’s only frontier offering has been taken down.
Spend for compute seems like it needs to increase to get the next iterations of models, and even if they IPO the money might run out before they can solidify their revenue streams.
All while Google just needs to survive long enough with their good-enough models and do it without really putting themselves in any existential financial risk.
And ideally the chinese models are also still there keeping everyone honest.
The true dystopic worst case is a Google monopoly on cutting edge AI.
Some of the harness even let you run a local model for most things, and only pay for the latest frontier models when needed, which cuts down cost drastically.
Well, in domains like SWE where Anthropic's putting in the effort. I don't they'll make the claims that OpenAI makes about how their models are pushing the life sciences forward, for example.
