>According to remarks carried by the Tasnim news agency, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said negotiations for a final deal will be held during a 60-day period, after verifying that the US implemented its commitments under the deal, including ending hostilities, lifting the blockade, and releasing frozen assets.
So, it's an even worse position for the US than before launching the war.
What is surprising is how co-opted the Biden admin was by Israel, that they didn't even bother to even consider reentering it despite it being a Democratic party "win" when it was first announced.
True but continuing the war is worse for Trump. There was no real way to win.
The US president has been played like a fool by the Israelis and Iran has inflicted a humiliating defeat to the US and its allies by leveraging cheap asymmetric warfare.
(Intentionally targeting civilian infrastructure is, of course, a war crime.)
But heck, if I were Iran I'd be wary after November. With Russia-style election rigging and spineless congress, Trump-Hegseth might resume the war crimes...
It looks like it is more an MoU than a deal, and I think that allows Trump the cover to drip feed out how humiliating it is, because this isn't the kind of band-aid you rip off all at once.
If I were a betting man I would bet that between now and Friday there will be too much news coverage of just how humiliating this is for the USA, how bad a deal it is, and how much of failure it is, and Trump himself will pull out of the deal. This has, allegedly, happened at least once.
But Iran now seem to be a bit better schooled in how to actually get him to agree, so perhaps they will be persuaded to smile a shit-eating grin while he takes a victory lap, and simply keep the most humiliating details of it under wraps until he signs.
How long it is before Trump claims to renegotiate it, who knows. Just the other day Trump said he might not renew USMCA — his own prior great achievement of loudly renegotiating NAFTA to be not significantly worse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2026_Iran_wa...
There have been persistent rumours that Iran will be allowed to charge new "environmental fees" for access, "to protect the ecosystem of the Strait" or somesuch.
(Secretary of War and former Fox News weekend anchor Pete Hegseth was on the news just this evening saying that the USA has been in control of the Strait the whole time, so I think the USA is arguing against your (correct) characterisation of the situation.)
https://www.dawn.com/news/2007544/cannot-impose-tolls-on-str...
(In other words, every barrel of oil that passes through the straight will now have an $X risk surcharge on it, whether or not that surcharge ends up in Iran's coffers.)
[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/trumptweets/comments/1u5xpoe/061426...
https://fordow.net/blog/posts/enriched-uranium-proliferation...
Is a good explainer about uranium enrichment.
> The most alarming aspect of 60% enrichment is how close it brings a country to weapons-grade material 4344. The enrichment work required to move from 60% to 90% is substantially less than the work needed to reach 60% from natural uranium 4546. This means a country with 60% enriched uranium stockpiles could potentially produce weapons-grade material in a matter of weeks or even days.
You don't have to think the Iranian government is in any way "good" but there's literally no logical reason for them not to desperately try to get their hands on nuclear weapons at this point. They have no reason to trust the West to ever follow through on any promises again.
Whether this is Trump's or Biden's or Joe Rogan's or a space alien's fault is for other commenters to discuss. I do not find the politics interesting. Nuclear science is interesting.
Key bullets:
What Iran gets:
* The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines.
* Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agreed with Tehran within 60 days.
What the US gets:
* Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.
* Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities.
* The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.
* Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.
Some of the brave people who tried to fight for freedom over Islamic theocracy, trusted in Trumps words help is on the way, and lost their lives. Trump (America) spent their lives as well: https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74...
No trust or guessing need in that case, Iran will only pause their nuclear program, maybe not even that.
Nordstream (Russia), Venezuela, Iran.
I wouldn't do that if I were Iran. Having nukes is the only thing that somewhat protects you from being trampled on by the US whenever the weather is right.
It's ultimately about controlling the world's oil supplies to put the squeeze on China.
"Come across as", as much as I despise Iran's regime, it seems like it is de facto the only country actually doing anything other than strong words for Lebanon.
Too bad the US blunder happened too late for Gaza and Palestine.
Hezbollah reports they're currently fighting an Israeli attack.[2]
So, for now, Israel vs. Lebanon is still on.
Israel's internal politics are confused right now. Times of Israel: "With Trump’s Iran deal, the October 7 wars are over. Israel really has no idea what to do next" [3] The haredim are rioting because some draft dodgers were arrested. Elections are coming up. Netanyahu is struggling to stay in power. (Like Trump, he faces trials once out of power.)
[1] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-06...
[2] https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/320711-hezbollah-attacks...
And of course all that sweet, sweet reconstruction/redevelopment money is going to go to Trump's buddies.
The US' limitations in its ability to project power have been exposed. Having American bases in the middle east has been shown to be nothing but a liability for host countries. And Iran has proven that it can withstand anything the US is willing to throw at it, and hit back hard, over a relatively prolonged period.
And Iran has shown that its constitution is strong and power succession is effective even after a massive decapitation strike. There was seemingly zero turmoil, control appears to have been maintained without issue.
And Iran's non nuclear option of controlling the strait has been tested andd shown to be highly effective.
And Iran has gained significant operational experience with its massive stores of drones and missles.
And the US has lost multiple billion dollar intelligence installations in the region.
And Americans have been made aware of the Israel lobby like never before, and Trump is in a very difficult position heading into the midterms.
Also, the idiot in the WH, single handedly turned Iran's many anti-regime citizens to pro-regime and patriotic.
Absolutely not. But Trump made two huge mistakes: 1) not imposing the naval blockade from the very start, 2) stopping the military offensive after only roughly a month, when about 50% of the Iranian missile stockpile was still intact. We must resume combat operations, bomb Iran until they are unable to fire back, and use their frozen funds to pay for damages to neighboring countries. It is absurd to offer Iran sanctions relief or "reparations," and makes Trump look incredibly weak.
Other things should also be done in parallel, such as actively hunting down and sinking Iran's "shadow fleet" of vessels, around the world and relentlessly until they are unable to export a single drop of oil by sea. We could also take their bridges and railroads and further deal a huge blow to trade with other nations by land. An invading force isn't needed for any of this.
which is of course the real kicker, The Gulf states are going to pay for the adventure and deal with an emboldened Iran and their damaged economies and infrastructure. Having US bases in the region has turned from a security guarantee into a disaster, the implications of this are pretty obvious.
The current crisis is entirely because Trump trashed that agreement in the first place.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-director-...
JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely.
JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-year sunset on enrichment was a non-negotiable.
Not that it's democrat's fault but democrat is more disciplined
Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the capabilities of the strongest research universities will also mean there is probably hell to pay in the medium term.
A quick glance at charts shows that VIX is not at all out of line with historical patterns, and asking ChatGPT to crunch some numbers confirms that. The "liberation day" spike was not nearly as bad as in 2008 or for COVID, and in fact not much more than events in 2010 and 2011 that people don't even have names for.
Pardon; are you asserting there is mountains of evidence that the bears have not, in fact, claimed impending recession far more often than actual recession occurred? Or that market timers are generally successful (are you not familiar with e.g. https://longbets.org/362/ )?
Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.
I plan to put most of the money in US t-bill (4 week) to earn 3% for now.
What are the counter arguments to these facts if we really end up in peace with Iran along with the bad actors gone too?
While before, Iran's assets worldwide were frozen, they're now receiving back $25 billion of it. Also, the sanctions preventing them from selling their oil are lifted, so they now have oil revenue to expect.
Additionally, the US will pay $300 billion to "reconstruct" Iran.
Lastly, Iran has proved that it has de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz and the mightiest military in the world cannot prevent or stop it. Going forward, Iran will receives fees to allow transit of the strait.
How can you possibly think this isn't worse for the US and the world than the previous status quo?
The nuclear bogeyman is the wrong thing to focus on. Sure, we don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but they have a lot of other power in the region, and we've only confirmed and entrenched that power.
The biggest problems with all of this seem to be the knock-on effects, as well as the lead-up. Does this new deal actually do more than Obama's? Doubtful. Obama's didn't come with a girls' school blown to bits or a world leader assassinated.
Everything around the politics of the attack looks amateurish. Calling on Europe to attack Iran even though no deal is in place with them to do so. Not stopping Iranian strikes throughout the middle east. Not keeping Israel in line. The war has been dragging on for months, but "it'll end this week." No, this week. "Very close this week." "Very close this week."
Then there's the issue of shooting down cheap drones with expensive equipment. Why in the name of the Lord is it that Ukraine has been bombed by Shaheds for years and defended against them using NATO and US weapons, but operators of US equipment in the Middle East had nothing to show for it? Did the US not have direct access to how the Ukrainians were using their equipment in a war characterized by the use of drones and AI to an extent never before seen? Did the US decide to not look into that for years, or simply let it slide knowing Iran would bomb its neighbors? Why was it that Zelenskyy had to go to the Middle East to make sure they used American weapons correctly? It seems to me lately that every country that can produce a meaningful amount of oil has been directly or indirectly affected by American aggression, and one has to wonder why you'd do something so blatant in slow motion.
The Iranian regime will be more repressive and more extreme.
The only good point about that is that it makes the regime weaker to domestic insurrections.
>> The only good point about that is that it makes the regime weaker to domestic insurrections.
But it will make the regime harsher on its population, and cause more suffering.
So many deals.
Of course they do. They have always said they don’t want nuclear weapons while pursuing them relentlessly.
> Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.
If that is still to be discussed, then what have they been discussing so far? That has always been the main issue.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-ira... https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-intel-community-agreed-b...
Reminder, the reason Trump hated the Obama deal was because he construed it as paying Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. Obama was paying Iran with the money from Iran's frozen assets. Trump's deal gives them that money, and has no nuclear agreement.
If the agreement means Iran seriously agrees to dilute (which boils down to destroying) it's nuclear stockpile, with UN or US or ... witnesses, that's pretty damn new.
And all of these have only bought time and money for the regime to continue its nuclear ambitions, terrorism plans, and oppress the people of Iran, including almost daily executions of innocent protestors during the last few months as these negotiations went on.
The truth is, it won’t be possible to solve this issue with this approach. You can’t get a snake to sign a document to agree not to be poisonous anymore.
I’ll be the first one in line to spit on IRGC. I had my cousin sent to Evin for six months after the Mahsa uprising. She was tortured and will never live a normal life again. But I’m glad IRGC defended the land and didn’t let US and Israel turn it into another Syria.
I think that internal Iranian issues should only be dealt with from within. I’m not going to celebrate the West attempting to interfere in our affairs.
Right now half the country supports the IRGC and this war increased the number of hardliners in the “Majles”. Just look at the new IRGC commanders in charge.
If the West genuinely was interested in helping the Iranian people, they would start by taking away the sanctions that our suffocating our people.
In short, I agree with your central argument, which ironically coincides with the regime’s talking points: “dialogue with the West is useless.”
Current government is a product of western actions in Iran.
It’s short sighted. If in 1950s they left Iran alone, the IRGC would disappear a long time ago because their strong grip would not be needed nor justified.
But every western leader wants to record a win, and constant attacks further increases the required grip of the IRGC.
Where the hell did you get that number from?
It's mostly accurate to say, e.g., that "about half the US supports Trump", though he seems hell-bent on driving that number further down lol
Now it is the wests problem (with the strait) but even now no one is going to send an army to Iran.
I know my views are probably overly simplistic.
1- Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon
- You know Israel won't let that happen
2- America's commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- No regime change
3- Complete removal of the naval blockade within 30 days
- Iran gets its oil money back.
4- America's commitment to the withdrawal of its forces from around Iran
- We leave altogether
5- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days with Iranian arrangements
- Iran gets to charge its "service" fees
6- Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives and Iran's full access to its financial resources.
- Oil money again
7- Necessity of presenting plans for the reconstruction of Iran in the amount of at least 300 billion dollars by the US and its allies
- We rebuild freakin Iran.
FFS. I think I'm done reading before we give them American Samoa and a puppy.
Honestly I think that's "Trump's win", and is probably all he cares about. Now he gets to funnel all these reconstruction contracts to his buddies, prioritizing anyone who gives him a "donation".
It sounded like an easy way to lose $6k, but maybe the upside is worth the risk. I don’t have any experience to know whether this is a sufficiently good bet though.
The markets go up because people buy expecting that the markets will go up, which causes sellers to increase their price because they expect people will pay more because of FOMO, which people still buy because they expect the market to go up further.
The snake somehow keeps eating its tail.
The upside is worth the risk if you can stand to lose $6k without it hurting too much. If you can't, then it isn't.
So basically the same as when the war started.
Oh my goodness. So it stays closed for the better part of a month (or more, who knows), then opens up with each ship paying Iran for passage. I very much look forward to how this will be spun as some kind of a "win" for the United States.
I would be shocked if it actually happens.
> Iran waited until the clock passed midnight local time to finalize the agreement, because it did not want the momentous occasion to coincide with President Trump’s birthday on Sunday, according to two Iranian officials who could not be identified because of the matter’s sensitivity. The seven-and-half-hour time difference allowed both Tehran and Washington to claim their preferred version of when the deal was finalized. President Trump had said it would be on Sunday, and Iran had said it would be on a later day.[0]
[0]https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/14/world/iran-war-trump...
So basically, both sides agreed to go back to the pre-war status quo for 60 days while negotiations continue.
Except one thing so far, apparently Trump has agreed to unfreeze Iranian financial assets.
Remember: the reason Trump said Obama's nuclear agreement was terrible was because Obama was "paying the Iranians to not develop nuclear weapons". What Obama did, was pay them out of these frozen assets. Which trump just gave them back for free, and without a nuclear deal.
Israel is angry: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/14/world/middleeast/israel-u...
Let's hope that means the deal will last.
It's just a 60-day cease fire extension, according to the New York Times.
Trump posted something on Truth Social. There's no announcement on the U.S. Department of State site. That's full of a deal between the US Government and the Ultimate Fighting Championship people.
Compare with the April 8th ceasefire.[2]
Al Jazeera, which reports on this in detail because their readership is in the target area, is trying to figure it out.[3]
[1] https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202606139149
[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-de...
[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/14/will-the-us-iran-de...
>Trump Sets New World Record By Winning War With Iran 27 Times In One Year https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-sets-new-world-record-by-w...
It's been a bit of a mess really.
An hour later, now they're not signing anything until Friday.
