I actually expect they will keep making the models open and we'll likely converge on one or two alternatives because there's really not much difference between them at the end of the day. Everybody curating their own model is a huge duplication of effort with no clear benefit. There's a reason everybody doesn't roll their own operating systems for example.

It all comes back to what I said earlier. If you treat the model as the product, then it makes sense to keep it closed. You have some secret sauce that nobody else has, and you sell it. But the reality is that nobody has a magic formula that's significantly better than what other people can figure out. You might get an advantage for a few months tops, and then other models start catching up.

And this creates involution where you just have a race to the bottom where nobody makes any money. On the other hand, if you treat models as infrastructure, and everybody contributes to the same pool of knowledge, then you amortize the cost of making a better model. The money comes from actual products that can genuinely differentiate themselves. Companies are going to seek niches they can dominate where they do a specific thing really well. That's a much more realistic path towards long term sustainability.

And that's why I expect models are going to become infrastructure akin to Linux in the long run. They're just not where profit is.