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0 pointsdeadbabe15d ago0 comments

The need for seniors isn’t going to “shoot through the roof” if they are using AI.

If senior engineers are even 2x more productive with AI, then it’s like there are 2x as many senior engineers.

Most likely, seniors will be 10x more productive in 5 years using AI. This outpaces the retirement rate.

All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce.

Only way juniors can rise to the level of seniors will be through independent projects, long unpaid internships/apprenticeships, etc.

The industry will now have heavy gatekeeping built in.

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3 comments · 2 top-level

rurp15d ago· 1 in thread

> All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce.

There's no way of knowing what the industry will look like decades from now. Even assuming the prediction that seniors become 10x more productive, that would mean software becomes much cheaper to produce. Does that induce enough demand for additional software that keeps employment levels high? Could be, who knows.

Alternatively, maybe software hits a saturation point where there just isn't as much new ground to cover and employment levels crater. That could happen too.

deadbabeOP15d ago

Ok so even less demand for software engineers? All the software engineers that the industry will ever need again have already been created?

dragandj15d ago

... and by the year 50, they will be a trillion times more productive?

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