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0 pointsandsoitis24d ago0 comments

In 2025 VOO returned 17.82% vs VOOG returned 22.11%. XMAG’s trailing 1-year return through late 2025 was around 9–15% depending on the measurement date, as the Mag 7 dragged badly in early 2025.

VOOG has returned 18.28%/yr over 10 years vs 15.63%/yr for VOO, a meaningful gap driven almost entirely by Mag 7 dominance. XMAG has no 10-year track record.

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toomuchtodo24d ago· 2 in thread

Certainly, you have done well over the last ~18-24 months if you have exposure to the AI investment exuberance (VOO), just as you did well if you had exposure to certain securities during ZIRP or the pandemic. "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

andsoitisOP24d ago

Since its September 2010 inception, VOO is up +816% in nominal total return, or +15.1%/yr annualized.

The 10-year total return is 327%, and the 15-year average annual return is 14.4%.

Hard to beat.

toomuchtodo24d ago

Which you only know in hindsight, in the context of this performance benchmark. In that time frame, we had zero interest rate policy, a global pandemic, and now an AI bubble. "Will the conditions or events that led to my historical returns continue?" is a material component of forward looking exposure decisioning when investing.

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