That's why talking about the profitability of inference without accounting for model training is interesting, because that is the deciding factor in whether more customers would help getting them in the green
But it's just that. A gut feeling.
One thing that really stinks to me is that various AI boosters have been claiming insane profit margins (40%, 50%, ...), yet apparently Anthropic stands to (possibly) make $500M profit on $11B in expenses, that's clearly nowhere near 50%. Not to mention that they're not making profit on inference now.
So where do people get this confidence to pull random numbers from?