But to your point, that is exactly how American companies like to play now. No one is stopping them from screwing over the consumer.
I have a Micron near me and they are building another chip facility but we are years away still so I suspect China will beat them to the punch.
China doesn't have EUV fabs... They've pushed DUV impressively far... but until they get EUV working industrially (and reasonable timelines are at least 2-4 years for that) it shouldn't be possible for them to compete for that market.
> China is the great equalizer of the world.
China is hardly an egalitarian society...
Another way China is a great equalizer is their willingness to do business with anyone that can pay.
Does this not count as soon? How often do you buy new computers? That seems pretty soon. I remember a year or few ago being told it'd never happen so they're already infinity years ahead of schedule if we accept that as reasonable. The rate they're pulling ahead of expectations appears to be so sharp there is a risk they leapfrog EUV to go on to the next big thing.
India is not even trying despite its size and we as germans do not push the EU as a union.
Would’ve been nice if the United States had built a rail system to north to Alaska or even a rail system to Chile to the south?
I guess doing things like that are hard to do when you’re busy fighting multiple wars since the early 1950s.
The big three memory makers will probably face their last big payday. I hope they enjoy it, as China will dominate the global memory market in three-five years due to their short term greed.
Apple will likely bring memory in-house, like they did with CPUs and GPUs. Anyone questioning the time it took to replace Intel and Qualcomm should consider the Chinese expansion in the memory market, which makes it a long-term necessity.
Apple has the money, and while its competitors have spent/squandered $1 trillion on the AI data center fiasco. Apple made a decision to stay away from the blast crater.
Meanwhile Apple which also has the expertise in engineering and chip design can do what is necessary and bring memory in house. Note: Nvidia and Broadcom have also been replaced along the way by Apple also.
Who knows maybe Intel will condescend to do memory too?
There is a certain amount of capacity to produce memory. They are building new facilities but it takes a long time. They have been burned going down this route many times in the past (e.g., losing money, firms that are no longer in business).
What would you have them do instead?
India needs to first figure out the absolute basics
At least we have the CIA to blame on religious fundamentalism.
The Indian Government is heavily pushing for domestic capabilities.
To understand why India failed to replicate the Chinese or East Asian model, I recommend A Sixth of Humanity by Devesh Kapoor and Aravind Subramanian.
I had a similar view to you ~2 weeks ago. Spending some time there very quickly made me realize that there’s a lot of other things that are much more pressing.
Higher education want to move or distant themselves from the poor, dirty or just caste separation.
If you have the feeling that certain things are not your problem, you are not rising.
You really can’t expect the same bureaucratic setup to think in terms of the decade+ it would take to be competent at something like chips
Basically:
China floods the market with cheaper but less QA'd parts, makes a gazillion dollars, is able to spend said money to fix yields / QA issues and streamline operations, by the time that happens Micron and maybe a few other existing players will have new memory production, and then we'll have a flood of cheap, reliable memory. 4yr, maybe?
I remember reading about it in Linux contexts decades ago, and these days it's something that Windows does automatically.
When can I expect this flood of cheaper RAM with less QA? I'd like to contribute to the gazillion dollar pile as soon as possible.
Normal people who have to wait for an event were doctors do free health care in a sport gym for a handful of days.
Thanks, please give my regards to Kash Patel.
SK Hynix and Samsung are South Korean.
The Korean memory makers are playing the same game as Micron and simply moving existing capacity up-market.
GP was referring to upstart Chinese memory manufacturers like ChangXin, who - if their yields manage to catch the wave - could not have asked for a more favorable market after the big 3 have abandoned the consumer segment. Consumers who would have otherwise turned up their noses at CXMT will not have the luxury.
China is very far away from flooding the DRAM market.
