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0 pointspoiuyt0981mo ago0 comments

Unskilled labor yes there's a surplus, but many skilled industries face large shortages.

>Surely there is enough accumulated capital to pay for the things you mention with higher wage

Then hyperinflation will eat it up. And I'm not a finance guy but isn't a big portion of wealth just on paper? Hypothetically, Microsoft share price could go to 0. And then stocks are owned by pension plans and state debt financing -- future debt that also requires constant new input, at some point wont many governments go bankrupt?

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toomuchtodo1mo ago

You’re not wrong, inflation will eat up the accumulated capital. Like a balloon that was blown up sucking up capital from aggregate workers, and is now being deflated as it has to pay out as workers become scarce over decades. And certainly, debt will be defaulted on. I’m unaware of any debt ratings that account for population and taxpayer burden and potential risk, but am happy to be corrected.

If someone wants to model what debt will likely not be paid back due to population curves, I’m willing to pay reasonable and customary costs to publish an open model, similar to the population tool Our World In Data built and I shared in my top comment.

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