But your follow up responses here are making me rethink. Now you have to have all these special cases where the original request is still in process. I think or assertion of "99% are simple POST operations" is bullshit. For the times where idempotency is hard and really matters, often times you're calling a third party API, like a payment processing API.
I would think a better approach would be to always return a 409 on a subsequent request, regardless of whether it passed or failed, and then have a separate standard API that lets you get the result of any request by its idempotency key.