Or has GDP growth become so decoupled from energy use that I'm wrong and stock market valuations are completely OK, even as airlines brace for fewer flights due to energy shocks?
That and the constraint on GPUs and datacenters and all has really brought home to me what a globalized economy we live in and how much our prosperity has depended on us being peacefully happy to trade with each other. One of my favourite books on the general subject of trade is A Splendid Exchange which gives a cool directionally-correct view of how valuable trade is.
Funny to think that Pax Americana would be ended by America.
> Fuel suppliers have indicated that May should remain manageable but have flagged “mid to late June as the potential start of disruptions”
So there is about 2 months before things run out.
Just constant burying heads in the sand, and believing in models where the prior assumptions are from a bygone era.
Own up to it. This is solely on the US. The rest of us had it handled until you came along.
Fixing the budget hole to pay for that spending without resorting to giving many people living in Monaco the Eichmann treatment as a side effect (which is untenable on account of French security guarantees to Monaco) would need some kind of government of hardcore believers who could also do math.
Everyone except the Iranians and maybe the Israelis were flat-footed by this, and the things that can be done about it are largely on the years/decades scale.
[To be clear, i dont 100% agree with this argument. I think there is a little truth to it but also things are much more complicated than that and it ignores the geopolitical tension in the region that was going to explode one way or another even without usa]
Until quite recently, “the US sticks its dick in the chainsaw” wasn’t a “within reason” scenario.
We had a good thing going, and you fucked it up.
One thing is correct though that UK security services have not anticipated such outcome and politicians have not done anything about it.
Since the inauguration Trump has supported physical seizures of many different kinds of Russia-aligned merchant shipping and the economic degradation of Russia's allies. Given all of this, we can assume that the Russian asset angle is a much less accurate explanation for Trump's behavior than the alternative theory where he is highly suggestible to the most recent person to heavily compliment him in-person which used to be Putin and has subsequently changed to some mix of Rubio, Vance, Hegseth, Netanyahu and the Trump family.
This war might be dumb but it was also predictable. Why were these no contingencies? Or to quote Churchill "If you want peace you have to prepare for war".
Tourism provides low quality, transitory jobs, with income flowing more to wealth holders (property owners etc) than to wealth creators. It distorts property markets and sucks the oxygen out of other kinds of business. About time the Med weaned itself off of it.
No. It's worse than that. The transient customer base rewards the worst people. The people who make the most money and have the most influence are basically scammers who manage to stay one season ahead of the bad reviews. They're screwing customers, shafting suppliers, employees, business partners, etc, everybody. By the time the 1-star reviews are pouring in they've pivoted, sold the businesses, under new management, etc, etc, and are on to the next venture.
So over time these people get rich you basically wind up with these sorts of people running everything including the government and it's all just shit.
And it permeates everything. Everyone starts screwing everyone and being scummy by default. And the time and money and effort of having to hedge against in literally everything makes everyone all substantially poorer
Source: Grew up in it. First world white people too, so spare me some patronizing BS about low trust societies or whatever
On the flip side, at least the beaches are kept clean. In the UK (where I'm from) there is a big problem with sewage outflows. Meanwhile here an entire beach got washed away by the winter storms - so they are putting it all back! Maybe 100 000 m3 of sand!
You can fly to the EU for 600 USD (retour), more in high season. Non business people are willing to spend 1200, 1400 USD. I assume around 2000 USD the demand will fall off significantly. At 5000 USD for economy it will be close to zero.
The price is determined by who needs it the most and is willing to give up the most cash. Instead of rationing by lines, or fixed quantities, it's allocation to those who can either make the most out of the jet fuel, or those for whom money is the least valuable.
