Ask HN: Terafab – Smart move or insane financial risk?

3 pointsimheretolearn4d ago2 comments

SpaceX has submitted plans to build Terafab.

https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-plans-55-billion-chip-plant-texas-2026-05-06

It is smart strategically and financially risky - very on-brand for Musk. Given how hard it is to build, let alone scale a fab without considering existing competition(TSMC) which is light years ahead I’m curious to know what HN thinks of this move?

SpaceX is already targeting a trillion dollar IPO and as an investor if you believe in this long term vision a trillion dollars might not seem too unreasonable.

2 comments

mikewarot3d ago

I think Elon's doing everything he possibly can to pump up the price of the SpaceX IPO, in an effort to re-anchor his personal wealth given the ongoing fall of Tesla, Twitter, etc.

I give 50/50 odds he'll personally be bankrupt by the end of 2027. A normal person would have some hard assets squirreled away in an un-touchable trust, as insurance. He's not that kind of person, it's all or nothing for him.

vegaxarchitect4d ago

I think they are the same thing usually but only when it's viewed in hindsight. By nature highly lucrative moves have to involve either information asymmetry or large absorption of volatility (risk). In this case it's both, but seems like he's projecting into the future at all times.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

2 comments

mikewarot3d ago

I think Elon's doing everything he possibly can to pump up the price of the SpaceX IPO, in an effort to re-anchor his personal wealth given the ongoing fall of Tesla, Twitter, etc.

vegaxarchitect4d ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse