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0 pointsaurareturn5d ago0 comments

He's right, there is a race. It's going to be a natural monopoly or duopoly because the cost to train the next SOTA model is always increasing. I can see that there are only 3 companies competing for the duopoly or monopoly realistically: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Everyone else has fallen behind. The flywheel of generate more revenue, get more data, get more compute train a better model might already be too great to overcome for anyone else.

I don't understand why he thinks OpenAI can't be one of the duopolies or become the monopoly. OpenAI's models are always the first or second best overall - usually the first. They are also leading in the consumer market by a wide margin. They also made a strategic decision that is paying off which was committing to more compute early on while Anthropic is hammered by the lack of compute.

PS. They've raised ~$200b total, not $1 trillion.

0 comments

atwrk5d ago

How can this become a monopoly/duopoly? There is no moat, the Chinese providers will continue to hunt the market leader at 10% of the price, there is no network effect (OpenAI's Sora was a play in that direction and failed).

I'm constantly amazed how this AGI/monopoly narrative can be kept up so long in the West, it just doesn't make sense (unless the state creates said monopoly by forbidding competition).

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libertine5d ago

Out of those 3, only Google seems to be in the position to reach that kind of profit levels due to distribution and advertising.

Claude is kicking ass in the niche of coding and processes.

1 trillion is a lot of money for something that's not differentiated and protected in a massive market.

Does it look like OpenAI has that in place?

Cuban thinks they don't, and won't.

aurareturnOP5d ago

I wrote about how I think OpenAI is going to kill it in advertisements here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46087109

Claude is kicking ass in coding but it seems like Codex is catching up fast. Claude Code's PR has taken a hit recently due to the lack of compute forcing Anthropic to dumb down the models. Codex has been gaining momentum.

Chip manufacturing aren't really differentiated either - it didn't stop TSMC from becoming the monopoly for high end chip nodes, capturing 90%+ of the advanced chip market. The reason they have is because Rock's Law makes it too expensive to build the next node unless you've generated enough revenue from the current node. I don't see why it isn't the same for SOTA models.

libertine5d ago

I understand your argument, but I think you might be overestimating the intent of the users when they're using chatgpt.

The ones killing on ads are Google, Meta, and Amazon.

I just don't see how ChatGPT will gobble those market shares - ads are increasingly tied to sales attribution, and it would require a complete shift of the market for ChatGPT to take over the role of those 3 players.

People will still try to look for content around the products they buy, or will shop for prices, or will look for feedback from other users of the product.

rwmj5d ago

Chip manufacturing is insanely hard, it requires know-how, that's the moat. It's not money, otherwise the EU and China would have leading edge fabs.

Machine learning has no real moat. There's no network effect, it's not hard (you can just throw money at the problem). It's not data, because we have an existence proof that general intelligence can be trained by a few humans and a shelf full of books. The compute to do it is generally available. As soon as one organization releases open weights, everyone can use it immediately, even on modest local hardware.

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machiaweliczny5d ago

They would compete with Meta then which already does something like this but has mature AD tech

jqpabc1235d ago

https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-makes-five-year-plan...

aurareturnOP5d ago

This is a 5 year pledge - likely based on hitting revenue goals and not just using investor money.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

atwrk5d ago

I'm constantly amazed how this AGI/monopoly narrative can be kept up so long in the West, it just doesn't make sense (unless the state creates said monopoly by forbidding competition).

1 more reply

libertine5d ago

Out of those 3, only Google seems to be in the position to reach that kind of profit levels due to distribution and advertising.

Claude is kicking ass in the niche of coding and processes.

1 trillion is a lot of money for something that's not differentiated and protected in a massive market.

Does it look like OpenAI has that in place?

Cuban thinks they don't, and won't.

aurareturnOP5d ago

I wrote about how I think OpenAI is going to kill it in advertisements here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46087109

libertine5d ago

I understand your argument, but I think you might be overestimating the intent of the users when they're using chatgpt.

The ones killing on ads are Google, Meta, and Amazon.

People will still try to look for content around the products they buy, or will shop for prices, or will look for feedback from other users of the product.

rwmj5d ago

Chip manufacturing is insanely hard, it requires know-how, that's the moat. It's not money, otherwise the EU and China would have leading edge fabs.

1 more reply

machiaweliczny5d ago

They would compete with Meta then which already does something like this but has mature AD tech

jqpabc1235d ago

https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-makes-five-year-plan...

aurareturnOP5d ago

This is a 5 year pledge - likely based on hitting revenue goals and not just using investor money.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse