December 2025 is considered by many people to be a major step function in agentic coding (both due to improvements in harnesses and LLMs themselves). I know my coding has forever changed since then.
Before I was basically always hands on the keyboard while working with AI. Now I'm running experiments with multiple agents over the weekend, only periodically checking in if they have any questions or need further instruction.
The last quarter is where I personally first started to see how this was all going to change things (despite having worked on both the research and product side of AI for the last few years).
> I have a feeling they've tuned the models recently to commit more often, which gives the illusion of more work being done.
Agents certainly are committing more often, but I know, at least for these projects, there really is work being done. An example: I had an agent auto-researching a forecast I was working on. This is something I've done manually for over a decade now. The iteration process is tedious and time consuming, and would often take weeks of setting up and ultimately poorly documenting many, many experiments to see what works. Now I can "set it and forget it", and get the same results I would have in hours (with much more surface area covered and much better documentation). Each experiment is a branch (or work-tree) so yes there are a lot of commits happening, but the results are measurably real.
I often think the big divide related to the success with agents is whether or not the quality of ones work can be objectively measured. For those of us doing work that can be measured, the impact of agents is still hard to comprehend.
If you are correct , and GitHub is scaling its compute mostly as a reaction to this externality (agents churning through code that will mostly be discarded), then you can look forward to getting billed for your usage. After all, it is hard to build a scalable system without back-pressure.
But if it ends up costing extra for GH, especially for work usage, then it's just a simple calculation of "is this worth it?" which I suspect for most cases will be 'yes'.
The start of basically any project involves building up and documenting context around the project itself (and for a new company, the organization itself), this is kept at multiple levels of granularity (cross project, project specific, task specific, and human readable documentation). All experiments are planned out and documented as they go.
This becomes extremely important because after a weekend of running experiments stakeholders (and myself) often have questions, with everything in memory or some other stored context it's trivial to get answers to all sorts of questions.
Maybe it's because of this, but in both Claude Code and Codex I haven't run into any issues with models getting "dumb as a rock", even after compaction (or occasional full terminal crashes) they seem to have no trouble marching on.
More likely pulls and pushes, and, naturally, the ci minutes they identify as the main issue.
Their current path to resolution is to migrate their codebase to a new language[2], continue to drop their inhouse ops for Azure resources and get off MySQL. Maybe one or two of those steps are legitimately a good idea - I don't have an inside scope - but technology migrations are always fraught with issues. It's quite possible these changes are just a result of them vibe-coding a mature codebase into a new language.
1. https://github.blog/news-insights/company-news/an-update-on-...
2. I'll grant that Ruby isn't the best language to use as scale but I think we're all old enough to realize that language choice is far less impactful on performance than code quality.
1. Models have got way better, which means you are far more likely to get something working. I know I used to have little 'tool'/'weekend projects' all the time that wouldn't get off the starting blocks before, now it takes a few minutes often to build them, and once I've built them I tend to want to have them saved on github. Quite how useful they turn out to be is another question though...
2. Related, because the models are a lot better I can generate far more code per unit time. On Sonnet last year I'd have to babysit the model and constantly 'steer' it, which meant a lot of the CC time was actually me reviewing it. Now with Opus4.7 it can often just churn away for 10-30minutes and get something reasonable.
3. Most importantly, just the volume of new users to coding agents - loads of new developers shipping far more far frequently.
4. Many users who were not on github, now signing up and pushing code to it. "Vibe coders" basically who don't have SWE experience and their agent tells them git would be a good idea.
Each of these would be a big increase in scale, but combined it is vvv high
