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0 pointsrramadass1mo ago0 comments

You still are not reading any of the articles i have linked to nor understanding them.

I did not say "five year from now, there will be far better bypass options"; that is the expert being quoted in the last linked article above. If you had read that you would know he was talking about the situation as a whole i.e. involving Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and other gulf countries all of whom are looking at ways to bypass Hormuz once and for all. Of these Saudi Arabia and UAE are the most ahead now and that is why UAE left OPEC to chart its own course since the others are lagging behind. Five years is definitely not long term but very aggressive for all gulf countries to setup infrastructure to bypass Hormuz. UAE is ahead of the game (with ADCOP since 2012) and it can easily setup its parallel lines in the next couple of years.

Again, i recommend you actually do some research on renewables vs. petroleum needs. Most transportation which can use electric is small-scale (eg. cars) but aviation/shipping etc. need Oil for the foreseeable future. What is being done with renewables is to control pollution/greenhouse-effects (essential) and lower dependence on Oil (financial/geopolitical reasons). I have already pointed out the need for Petrochemicals. If you do some research on the share of renewable energy sources in some of the world's biggest economies (specifically China and India) you will see that it is still very small considering their current/future needs. Renewables have a long way to go before they can actually make a dent in the global Oil needs.

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don_esteban1mo ago· 2 in thread

I had a look over this entire chain of posts.

We are still talking past each other.

Your main point is long-term plans of UAE to increase its production and to build up its ability to bypass Hormuz.

My main point is that in the short-term (say before 2030), UAE has no way to significantly increase its capability to bypass Hormuz, so to make effective use of the increase of its production, it is still dependent on Hormuz.

To quote from few posts above:

Me: 1) The pipeline to Fujairah has capacity of 1.5m barrels per day, i.e. less than half of UAE's current oil production. They still need Hormuz badly.

You: Not quite. ADCOP was carrying 50% of UAE production (1.5-1.8 million bpd) and is being ramped up significantly.

When pressed about 'being ramped up significantly', you pointed to sources about the production being ramped up significantly and build-up of port and storage facilities at Fujeira, and about plans to build a parallel pipeline in the future. That is not 'pipeline capacity being ramped up significantly', that is 'there are plans to increase the pipeline capacity'.

Perhaps misunderstanding.

Anyway, I do not really understand your pumping-up UAE future. The war has severely disturbed their non-oil income and continued regional instability would not bode well for their future (rich people do not like unsafe places).

Their recall of Pakistan's line of credit, intention to leave OPEC and their super-hostile stance to Iran do not make them friends in the region. And relying on USA/Israel for security/help is only for fools.

rramadassOP1mo ago

Your comment(s) are a perfect example of Trevanian's quote "Obtuseness was its own defense".

We are not talking past each other; You are simply trying to play "gotcha" games which i had to refute. I should also note that you have provided no sources of any kind.

I have already pointed out that UAE's output before the war was in the region of 2.9-3.5 bpd (this is variable OPEC cap) with ADCOP carrying 1.5-1.8 bpd. A little math will tell you that ADCOP was carrying between 43% and 62% of the cap and so i had mentioned a approximate mean of 50%. I have seen reports which mentioned that sometimes it fluctuated between 32% and 66% (now even more higher) based on OPEC caps/Hormuz situation.

I have also pointed out that ADCOP was constructed within 5 years and UAE has been working on Hormuz bypass options for well over a decade. Parallel pipelines would clearly not take as much time and we should easily see it by 2027/2028 since everything is being accelerated.

UAE is being a responsible "world citizen" when it comes to the all essential Oil economy and hence i do not appreciate FUD being spewed when actual facts are easily available.

Your last para are your fanciful opinions and have zero validity. The Iran conflict was simply a matter of "when" which just came to fruition now. As pointed out earlier, OPEC countries themselves were working on Hormuz bypass options for more than a decade. Iran has no friends in the Gulf region and hence UAE is fine; and whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf.

don_esteban1mo ago

I will leave this one to shine on its own, there is really no need to add anything else:

"whether you like it or not US/Israel are the only guarantors of security in the Gulf"

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