Bankruptcies increase 11.9 percent (opens in new tab)

kalashi is coming

after word spreads of easy pickings, funds swell into bankruptcy rate contracts. the success stabilizes average losses across Kalshi portfolios; the bankruptcy rate falls.

after smart money then moves to predicting the period of the oscillations, …

Relevant snl skit: https://youtu.be/wXZNuwY_5-U

Double or nothing!

i think you mean the ever increasing greed of the 1%

I'd argue that, while a portion of this rise obviously consists of troubled/problem/addicted gamblers, a huge part of the rise of gambling is from desperation: The public's growing belief that the traditional wealth-producing ladders have all been pulled up, and that gambling is the last remaining hope that normal people have of making decent money.

"Work hard all your life and retire with a pension." - fantasy in 2026.

"Invent something new and capitalize on it." - not realistic in the face of gigantic, powerful, all-owning corporations who will squash you.

"Buy an existing business and live off the proceeds." - impossible without existing wealth.

"Become a famous pop star or sports hero." - as improbable as ever.

People have no hope anymore, and hopeless people turn to random chance as the last and only remaining option.

IMO prediction markets are an interesting tool but you can just ban sports gambling and keep 100% of their value and remove 90% of their downsides.

TV and social media have been the modern bread and circuses for a while now. Gambling continues to be a vice.

Not to mention fools and their money parting.

>I'm more likely to believe inflation to be the cause

based on what?

Kind of. I want to yes, but its not directly how this works or how it sounds. A large increase in poverty or loss of property is insufficient to stoke revolution on its own. The increase of poverty in favor of the rich devastates the economy for multiple reasons, such as: opportunity contraction, less spending, loss of motivation/mobility, and more. When the economy loss becomes wide spread enough, regardless of bankruptcy/poverty/homeless or whatever rates is when revolution happens.

The problem has to effect a majority of society. 12% sounds devastating (it is), but it is not a wide enough umbrella.

Bankruptcy won't even discharge the kind of debt many/most of the lower-middle class fall broke upon. Alimony, child support, student loans, "restitution."

I think what's different is that we actually have democracy, yet for whatever reason, the masses of poor people keep voting for governments that overtly and openly only care about rich people.

Maoist china certainly and famously murdered many rich people. It's true that the state that emerged had deep corruption and that life remained difficult for the poor, but murdering rich people is an allegation difficult to deny.

You forget the French, who inspired Marx's exhortations to practice "revolutionary terror," the "only way," [0] with their own public executions of the rich [1].

[0] https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/11/06.htm

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reign_of_Terror

Sure, but states typically at least pretend and allege to benefit their constituents. We haven't tried to do that since at least reagan.

>So obvious that I'm not sure why the question is even being asked.

its a rhetorical question.

the question is asked to make a point rather than to be answered.

I think the death spiral breaks at step 3. Financially stable and literate people do not pay credit card interest. They pay off the full balance every month resulting in 0 interest payments. In cases where they need credit beyond the short term float the above gives you, they have access to lower interest loans.

These people also don't make the cards much money, so loosing them wouldn't have that much of an effect anyway.

This is a good theory.

If anyone is wondering how to escape this cycle, the solution is pretty straightforward; don’t buy things you cannot afford with cash/debit.

If putting your credit card balance on autopay is scary to you, you probably shouldn’t have a credit card. Also, having a credit card doesn’t mean you can ignore the charges and settle up at the end of the month. Credit is a tool that can be abused and misused like any other tool.

Personally, I’m anti credit in general and don’t have credit cards or a credit score. But I also moved to Europe where credit is not nearly as important as when i lived in the US.

Credit cards are a death trap, unless you use them as a debit card - as a convenience (and to collect points) not as a source of credit.

I've had credit cards for 30 years. Use cards for all expenses when I can, have always paid the bill in full every month, have never spent a dollar of interest in my life, so I don't even look at the interest rate when getting a new card. I don't spend anything I know I won't be able to pay for at the end of the month (and yes, that does mean we've postponed purchases for months or even years).

But the allure of buy now pay later is pushed so heavily that it's hard for many people to resist.

> 3. People who are financially stable and literate see the increased rates and put fewer things on credit.

Financially stable and literate people don’t pay credit card interest at all.

Credit cards are useful for fraud protection and rewards, the people that use them to finance purchases at 24% APR are wildly irresponsible or desperate.

Your mom: Why don't you have a credit card? It helped me so much when I was in your situation.

You, a young adult who doesn't check: I'll get one! runs up debt with an interest rate 4x what your mom had to deal with thirty years ago HELP I'M SUPER BROKE AND BANKRUPTCY IS A LOT HARDER THAN IT WAS THIRTY YEARS AGO TOO

You, a young adult who checks: The interest rates are 4x what they were when I was in your situation. This looks like a much shittier deal than it was for you.

If you've had credit cards in the past, your minimum payments and debt servicing will be a lot more expensive than before.

I don't know if this is his point, but a decent amount of cash went to individuals as part of Covid relief in different forms, and this caused a delay in bankruptcies because people were able to pay their bills. Pick your moral quandry.

Speculation/personal read on this.

1. A lot of companies got used to ZIRP money (not to mention the trickle-down effect to the rest of the economy).

2. The COVID printing spree/helicopter money had a knock-on effect of rising inflation (more dollars/demand competing for the same resources, or less). That was made even worse by tariff fluctuations.

3. The delta between revenue/investment money vs. cost increases relative to inflation likely exceeded the threshold for these companies to stay solvent (or to make it worth it to keep the business operational).

Businesses focused more on seeking out easy government money than building good products.

Still not very high by historical standards. In fact, it really just seems like we're approaching the pre-pandemic norm.

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12536