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0 pointsbrightball1mo ago0 comments

> As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario.

IMO economics always wins. You're never going to see an all-cooperate scenario.

You will see an all-compete scenario, so constantly reducing costs for alternatives is key but you also have to find a way to ensure that the producers can win economically too. This is the conundrum.

If solar panels get cheap enough to create high demand, then that demand has to carry through the process of manufacturing, installing and maintenance. Every time I read that solar has gotten even cheaper, I start calling for quotes to install them at my house and the prices are borderline obscene. Same for geothermal last time I needed to update my HVAC.

I want solar and geothermal to work but the economics are a challenge.

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5 comments · 2 top-level

iso16311mo ago· 2 in thread

In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel

A plug in solar panel and microinverter at the local supermarket is about €1k/kW. 9kW of solar for €9k/£8k/$10.5k to power an average US car and an average US house.

Avearge US car does 13,000 miles a year needs about 4,500kWh, so €4500

An average US home uses 11kWh a day, or 4,000 kWh a year, that would be another €4000

US electric price is an average 17c per kWh. That's a 15% ROI.

I suspect the costs your quoting are mainly things like scaffolding and labour, and that's not going to get cheaper.

The panels themselves - ignoring inverter, install, etc, are $100 for a 400W panel [0]. To generate a whopping 16,000kWh a year -- 70% more than the average -- you'd need to spend $4k on panels. Even if panels were free, your quotes would still be obscene because tradesmen charge obscene amounts (or rather roofing work is just expensive)

[0] https://www.solartradesales.co.uk/aiko-neostar-2s-460w-n-typ...

0cf8612b2e1e1mo ago

Your US home consumption is off. EIA puts the average at 10,500 kWh per year, 875/month, 29/day.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/electricit...

mafuy1mo ago

> In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel

Typo, 1000kWh from 1kW of solar panel.

I got my 4x 455W panels for 70€ each from BayWa (random vendor in Germany), plus delivery. Microinverter ~200€. Aluminium etc for installation ~400€ or so. I installed them together with a friend. Total cost ~900€ or so. At 30ct/kWh in Germany, break even is in 3 years. Would be earlier if I had a better roof to put them on, mine has some shadow.

SequoiaHope1mo ago· 1 in thread

Keep in mind if you are in the US, your prices have been artificially raised by tariffs. 30% starting in 2018, then declining each year for a while to 15%. Those tariffs recently expired but when I searched I saw this article about new tariffs on certain countries solar as high as 123%.

All this to say, you calling a local company and getting quotes captures your price but that’s not quite the same as the global price.

https://esgnews.com/us-imposes-solar-tariffs-up-to-123-on-im...

EDIT: I was wrong - tariffs on eg Chinese made solar panels are more like 65% right now - there’s multiple tariffs. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/02/04/u-s-raises-solar-poly...

Point being the US government is making them expensive for US consumers but that’s not true for global markets where they want to have energy independence. Solar is in fact very cheap these days.

phil211mo ago

Tariffs have little to do with install costs in the US. They were horrible before Trump, and aren't much worse today.

The equipment is nearly free compared to the labor to install it. At least the last time I checked. I could do my own DIY system for about 1/4th the cost of one "professionally" installed - and I use the scare quotes for good reason. Most of the installation companies for residential solar exist to sell financing, the solar bit is just an unfortunate tertiary (behind grifting on the green energy credits/tax rebates) concern for most of them.

Panels costing an extra 65% is a rounding error for me. I'd need a whole lot more real estate to put them on for it to become a significant fraction of the total system cost.

And that might even STILL be okay if the quality of engineering and workmanship was decent and available. I'd pay the going rate tomorrow if I could find a highly competent electrician/company to do the over-engineered setup I want today. I'm not interested in saving money - I could care less if it ever pencils out. I'm interested in having a system that can survive a lengthy grid outage situation that is fully redundant and properly engineered to industrial level standards. This is effectively impossible in the US, but friends in other areas of the world have had similar setups installed for years.

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