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0 pointsJumpCrisscross1mo ago0 comments

> Egypt is aligned with the KSA

It’s complicated [1]. My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo.

> Already aligned with the UAE

Aligning. To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet.

> the Pakistan aspect is overstated

Pakistan isn’t the cause. It’s the canary. These moves happening in quick succession (strategically, over the last year, and tactically, in the timing of these announcements) speaks to previous assumptions being fair to be questioned.

[1] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/egypts-t...

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alephnerd1mo ago· 2 in thread

> My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo

Abu Dhabi and Cairo have been misaligned for years since the Sudan Civil War began (UAE backs the RSF and KSA+Egypt back the Army) as well as the UAE backing Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia at the expense of their traditional partner KSA.

> To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet.

This is as close as it will get. New Delhi doesn't "sign" defense treaties unless pushed to a corner, because it reduces maneuverability.

The Pakistan-KSA alignment was already cooking after IK was overthrown. I think I mentioned it before on HN (need to find the post I wrote) but given the primacy Pakistan has had in US-Iran negotiations well before the war as well the PRC's increasingly miffed attitude at Pakistan following the CPEC attacks, the US most likely brokered a back-room realignment between PK and KSA.

A neutral-to-ambivalent India with a pro-America Pakistan is better for the US than a completely aligned India with a pro-China Pakistan.

TODO: citations

roncesvalles1mo ago

India is doctrinally non-aligned (being a founding father of the Non-Aligned Movement), and the chance of a completely US-aligned India has always been zero. Even with Russia, its closest "ally" (only by a history of cooperation, not in any formal pact-ratified sense like Russia-China), it maintains only an arms-length relationship.

India is actually the true neutral major power. I don't really count Switzerland because it was obvious it would align with the EU/NATO/US axis when things got hot, as it did in the context of Ukraine-Russia.

alephnerd1mo ago

Yep. There's nothing wrong with that, but it means US-India relations tend to remain fairly transactional while allowing both autonomy from a strategic standpoint, such as India signing a RELOS with Russia and Pakistan under Munir returning to the American fold at the expense of the Chinese.

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