For example, if China looks at the chaos that has been Russia attempting to take Ukraine and the USA attempting to control Iran and thinks "Amateurs" right before doing the same to Taiwan, the GPU supply takes a massive dive. And if North Korea goes after South Korea, RAM gets even harder to buy.
And if the EU says no more ASML sales outside the EU, that delays factories outside the EU by a few more years than they'd otherwise take.
But in the other direction, if NVIDIA's only thing is IP, and the IP is tied to a nation which thinks everyone else on the planet is hostile, that IP may not get protected very well. Right now this is unthinkable, but 5 months ago so was Trump threatening force to take Greenland.