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0 pointsslibhb2mo ago0 comments

> Do actual climate scientists claim we're getting more, and stronger, hurricanes now than we did before?

The general line is that climate change has probably increased the amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes, possibly the severity of hurricanes (due to sea level rise and warmer water) but there isn't good evidence that it has increased the frequency of hurricanes.

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WorldMaker2mo ago· 2 in thread

I've heard climate scientists that describe climate change as a "more energy in the system" phenomenon. The overall system for now is mostly the same, but every event inside of it has "more energy" than it had before.

For hurricanes this seems especially problematic because the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm. "More energy" means that the categories stay the same over time, but every category is getting worse (more rainfall, heavier/faster winds, further travel, higher damage).

As with so many statistical phenomenon, it's also a reminder to be careful what metrics you are trying to compare. Comparing just the hurricane categories to historic values may just be the exact sort of wrong metric, for these "more energy" concerns.

JumpCrisscross2mo ago

> the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm

Now I'm confused again, because OP used data going back to 1851. We didn't have radar in the 19th century.

WorldMaker2mo ago

Ah, sorry. I suppose it is only fair to mention using the wrong metrics and getting the exact metric wrong myself. Today it is radar-observed wind speed and historically there were other less efficient means to test or at least estimate wind speed.

The original point still stands that Hurricanes are defined by only the one metric and other metrics have room to grow bigger as the category stays the same:

> The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

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