And they are already capable of making a genuine mess of things --- particularly over the long term.
Some AI models are sorta OK at writing code. None of them are very good at maintaining it. Straightening out the mess that AI makes is going to be even harder and more costly after the labor market for developers retracts.
On one side you can interpolate in what direction it can go, than you can also add the general speed we are currently seeying and then you can try it out yourself.
The conclusion?
1. its clear that currently its critical to be aware of whats going on. With this you can act sooner or be part of this
2. if it hits hard but not too hard, you might have an advantage because you know how to use it
3. if its stalls you can reduce your effort in this area
I'd rather see what institutions such as NBER have to say than to blindly trust frontier AI labs that won't even publish their methodologies most of the time.
Amodei's intention is to signal to the corporate world that his product is extremely valuable because they might be able to fire half of their entry level people. Amodei doesn't care whether that's actually true, it's just a sales pitch. Amodei is advertising his product, but LeCun thinks he's making predictions.
Yann LeCun is a Turing award winning research scientist who will be remembered as a scientist and a visionary.
Amodei’s name will go the way of WeWork’s Adam Neumann - it will be mostly forgotten, and only remembered on occasion as a massive and embarrassing fraud.
