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0 pointsbiznickman13y ago0 comments

To continue on with this train of thought, the greater point here is that not all likes are created equal. Facebook's system will understand the importance of a like you make.

Let's say you continue liking posts on your favorite news site, they can learn a lot about your interests. However if you arbitrarily like a page due to an ad, it may not be as much of a signal. Facebook can test your interest again by subtly displaying a post related to that like you made and see if you respond to it. Enough non-responses cancels out the value of that initial like.

The point is: to think that Facebook is only using a "like" on the surface to optimize the feed is significantly underestimating the company.

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ThomPete13y ago· 2 in thread

I am not saying it is only using likes like that :)

But to think that they have somehow solved the problem of intent is significantly overestimating the company.

And they still haven't solved the problem of giving me the right advertising in the right moment. They are just ads based on my interest.

It's a very very different thing than what google are able to do.

jonnathanson13y ago

Facebook hasn't totally solved the problem of intent, but it has gotten damned good at solving habit, and people are creatures of habit. Bear in mind that Facebook's algorithm can detect a lot more than just the topics you're interested in, and the sources you're most interested in receiving those topics from. It can also detect your general susceptibility to advertising, and your purchasing habits based on your uptake rate of ads, your outbound traffic from sales links and ads, etc. From there, it can put various pieces together.

Is this the same thing as capturing in-the-moment intent, the way Google can with AdWords? No. Is it as powerful? The jury's still out. What Facebook does certainly isn't as elegant as what Google is able to do. It's more of a brute force solution to capturing your intent, whereas Google goes right to the point of action. But Google's approach has its weaknesses, too: it can't influence you upstream of your search. (Facebook can, at least in theory).

Traditionally, people have thought about online advertising as very transactional, situational thing. You're served an ad, and either you click it or you don't. If you click it, either you're converted to sale or you aren't. Done. Facebook is playing a different game. It's trying to influence your behaviors before you're served the ad -- both to serve you ads you're more likely to bite, and to stimulate your demand for ads in the first place. It still faces the problem of conversion, and Google is much better at conversion. But Facebook is operating from a fundamentally different strategic equation.

To put it broadly: Google is great at selling you the things you want; Facebook may become great at selling you the things you didn't realize you wanted.

ThomPete13y ago

I hear ya but habits are hard to break. So what does that give Facebook that it knows my habits?

I think that is what I am struggling with understanding the value of.

If I know you go by Petes Coffee every day then great I know something about you. Now how is that relevant for starbuck in any way that isn't already solved with knowing I drink coffee.

So StarBucks can try and get me to become a customer at their store. Fine but then we are back at how do they reach me?

They will have to depend on me checking my feed at some point where it's relevant or start spamming my updates tab when I walk by.

That's possible but a very very dangerous game to play IMHO.

With regards to upstream. Google as a working mobile app store :) FBs isn't even close to having solved that issue.

Edit: Saw you edited your comment so here is my edit to your edit :)

With regards to selling me things I didn't know I wanted then I sure don't hope that is their strategy. Cause that is such a big trial and error it's not even funny.

A user is currently valued at around 4USD, it needs to increase quite significantly and with a much harder job then (selling you things your didn't know you wanted).

FaceBook might be working on things we don't know about, of course they are, but OpenGraph to the best of my knowledge is not able to transcend from knowledge about habits into intent. Adding to that the problem with not having the ability to serve me with answers when I want them (especially hard on the mobile unless they want to turn it into a spam channel) then I don't see that as being a viable strategy.

But sure I might be wrong.

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