"International obligations
As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States must stock an amount of petroleum equivalent to at least 90 days of U.S. imports. The SPR contained an equivalent to 141 days of imports as of September 2016. The United States is also obligated to contribute 43.9% of petroleum in any IEA-coordinated release."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(U...
That "6 weeks" probably reflects oil that is already in the refinery supply chain and is therefore deliverable over the next several weeks. The issue is that the top of that funnel is not being refilled.
The US is an exporter of jet fuel but places like Europe and Asia or more exposed to bubbles in the supply chain.
> ... due to rising kerosene costs, are currently no longer financially viable to operate. There is no kerosene shortage.
For jet fuel? The article does not say, but if they are correct in predicting shortages in six weeks, then the stockpile (if any) is not terribly large.
> Isn't the entire US national strategic oil reserve only enough for like 1 month of US usage?
In any case, whatever it is, crude oil is not yet jet fuel. The crude has to be refined to output jet fuel (and other oil byproducts), and some amount of gulf refinery capacity is also offline due to one or both of damage or inability to export via sea through the strait.
Some flight operators are planning for shortages by canceling flights: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-feb...
Every business is prioritizing stocking up on goods they need already. They need transport to do that.
But I was thinking from a political perspective, allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed, like vacation hotspots, seems ill advised, if you truly expect to run out off fuel. The reality is that Europe won't run out of jet fuel, it's airlines can pay for the fuel it needs, for the destinations it requires, but prices will go up. Poorer countries will run out, because the fuel is worth more in Europe and will be redirected.
Long term the government will have to look into reshoring some refineries I suppose.
What exactly is a "needed" destination and who decides that? Who is going to shoulder the financial loss for banning airlines from flying to popular spots?
If you ban airlines, why not other industries too? Why not private individuals too?
See? It's not that easy
"The disruption is caused by extraordinary surge in oil prices followed by unpredictable fuel supply shortage constraints across the aviation industry outside our control. As a result, we are unable to operate this route in a responsible and sustainable manner."
Losing that much oil hurts. But it's entirely in the realm of what market forces can deal with. As storages empty prices rise, which lowers demand. There's already reports of multiple airlines suspending some of their flights because they aren't economically viable right now
As it happens, about 75% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Middle East (I don't immediately have numbers for what of that goes through the Persion Gulf). That percentage puts it outside of the range you can correct with market changes (other than most flights don't fly... that is pretty drastic).
European aviation is particularly exposed to the shortage of jet fuel, relying heavily on imports from the Middle East. Around 75 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the region, making any prolonged disruption especially problematic for its aviation industry.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/jet-fuel-shortage-w...
The EU is by its construction a trade harmonization organization, it's not built for acting quickly and dealing with crises.
I've also heard it used as an argument in a podcast with "armchair generals" (I believe it included an actual general, nvm) about the possible planning/intent behind the whole situation. That is, assuming it wasn't all just incompetence and/or secret self-enrichment backdoor deals between key players operating from the shadow. From what I remember (vaguely), it was argued that serious internal problems within the EU could be part of an agenda. I can't recall how that then would be exploited, beyond just causing chaos in Europe for the sake of it. Still, I could imagine that to be a goal in itself for some of the involved.
Even 6 month type stockpiles usually take special regular maintenance procedures.
An airline can only schedule flights if fuel is guaranteed to be available at both ends. If they fly their plane to a part of the world experiencing severe shortages, the plane may become stranded there because there isn't fuel to fly it back.
Rationing causes serious problems. A warning in advance gives people and powers time to turn things around before rationing becomes necessary.
If they can increase supply or reduce demand, the reserve will take longer to draw down.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/10/jet-fuel-shortage-europe...
If they are that limited, I am shocked they are not curtailing use immediately. The time to start rationing was when this mess began.
> In the past, Europe has relied on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports, the IEA noted.
Just-in-time logistics are great, until you can't get things in-time.
Having six weeks of food in my house is probably plenty. Having six weeks left on my Mars mission when it's a six month trip home, less so.
KLM cancels 160 flights due to fuel shortage
https://www.reuters.com/business/klm-cancels-160-flights-com...
I didn't time it exactly, but the last time I was able to observe it happening it was about half a minute for me.
Right now it seems like we've entered a detente where (1) Iran controls the strait and allows oil to flow with tolls and (2) the US lies about it and pretends (for domestic consumption) like it's interdicted all tolled commerce.
Iran, for sanctions related reasons, is unable to make international grade jet-fuel. Only the GCC countries can (in the Persian Gulf). And so not a single tanker of jet fuel has transited the Straits of Hormuz to Europe since this incredibly dumb war started. Iran does export raw crude to China, which refines it to international grade jet fuel, and China is getting some shipments from Iran, but China's raw crude imports have dropped, and they have responded by ending jet-fuel exports to the rest of Asia.
My understanding is that Europe can produce jet-fuel from the North Sea deposits, but they rely on imports because it is not sufficient for their consumption (My memory is that 'domestic production' was on the order of 60% of consumption). So as long as the Straits are blocked to GCC traffic there will be problems for European commercial aviation, getting worse over time.
<sarcasm>Yeah, of course, it's their fault</sarcasm>. It's the American regime and their clown(s) show that are to be blamed for the current fuel crisis and global economic sabotage.
During Covid, the then-presidumb said he'll make China pay for it. Now it's time for a differnet medicine: Evict US bases from your countries. Instead of pleading and sucking up to them, gang up (show of force) against American war games and send them home. Move away from US dollar. Keep them in their place until they how to behave.
price has doubled since his little "excursion" (a three hour tour?)
This may change if Ukraine can sustain what they were doing last couple of months, but so far Russia benefits extremely well from US war against Iran.
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news...
Fortunately the Trump Ally in Europe that was buying much of that energy just got kicked out, so, er, now all we have to do is… er… my head hurts.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...
> If replacement cargoes are coming from the U.S. East Coast, typical sea-freight transit to North Europe is about 15 days and to South Europe about 18 days. For longer-haul routes from East Asia toward Europe, a typical voyage is about 30 days, and some general Europe-bound ocean freight can take 30 to 45 days depending on route and congestion.
