I don't agree with your prediction, the interesting thing is now, perhaps, we can actually wager on the outcomes, I wonder if there is anything on prediction markets about administration officials going to jail.
The idea that his support is collapsing is also pretty misstated. Yes, there's a lot of people that don't fully agree with Iran and other things, but that's a far cry from backing his ops.
I also think you are missing the shift in politics at all the lower levels to align with the current administration. Outside of the deepest wealthy Democrat areas, and even in some of those, the general position of local politicians and officials is moving towards the sort of nationalist populist attitude Trump has curated.
The same is also pervasive among state and federal government institutions with limited exception.
And of course that's all only IF Democrats win big in 2028 which is a far from guaranteed outcome.