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0 pointsskybrian1mo ago0 comments

Your cynicism doesn't prove that it's fake, though.

0 comments

You got the causality backwards, the cynicism is because it's most likely to be fake.

A lesson of the parable about "crying wolf" is that cynicism based on previous events doesn't prove that the next event is fake. The people who ignored the warning may have thought it "most likely," but they were wrong.

nothinkjustai1mo ago

Never use previous actions to predict future actions, genius advice.

skybrianOP1mo ago

It’s more about when your priors are so strong that it’s not worth paying attention to a new report. Clearly not in this case.

davebren1mo ago

The point of the parable is not about the problem of induction but about how lying erodes trust.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

davebren1mo ago

You got the causality backwards, the cynicism is because it's most likely to be fake.

skybrianOP1mo ago

nothinkjustai1mo ago

Never use previous actions to predict future actions, genius advice.

skybrianOP1mo ago

It’s more about when your priors are so strong that it’s not worth paying attention to a new report. Clearly not in this case.

davebren1mo ago

The point of the parable is not about the problem of induction but about how lying erodes trust.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse