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0 pointstomtomtom7772mo ago0 comments

Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.

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5 comments · 1 top-level

FrustratedMonky2mo ago· 4 in thread

I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome.

Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself.

In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game.

In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.

verdverm2mo ago

> In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game.

On the other hand, since you can bet on individual pitches, you no longer have to throw the game, just the right pitch at the right time. A couple of players were caught, but who knows how widespread this really is...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46917665/mlb-betting-gua...

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-leagu...

The focus on making money above all else, as a cultural dynamic, is degrading the human experience. It increasingly seeps into more aspects of our lives and is part of the broader Trustpocalypse.

antonvs2mo ago

> Who could have foreseen

Economists. They even have a term for this, dating back to the late 1800s: "moral hazard".

Polymarket creates moral hazard when participants can profit from outcomes they can influence.

tomtomtom777OP2mo ago

You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made.

In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage?

FrustratedMonky2mo ago

Yeah. I have to agree. My view has changed in last week.

I never imagined that markets could be so corrupted by those in power, without some other consequences somehow balancing out. Like being arrested, or removed from office.

Forget PolyMarket. We literally have bets being made on oil futures, directly before a tweet by the president. Openly profiting on direct minute by minute manipulation. Openly corrupt.

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