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0 pointsthejohnconway1mo ago0 comments

> Iran does not “control” the strait any more than neighbor controls my front door because he threatened to stop me from using it. If the US or other naval power tried to pass it would have no issue

If your neighbour threatened to shoot anyone attempting to use your front door, and followed through on their threat a few times, and now no one uses your front door, I would say they control it.

Al Jazeera are reporting that Iran is planning to continue with the toll: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-de...

Your assessment of the military situation in the strait doesn’t align with any expert analysis I’ve come across.

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refurb1mo ago

Well the “expert” analysis you mentioned said the world would grind to a halt last month but that didn’t happen did it?

India and Pakistan have been running the “closure” several times with escorts, successfully. All it would take a is a naval coalition of 3-4 countries and the strait is effectively open - and no toll.

Iran is in a far worse position now than it was a month ago (and it was in a bad position back then). It’s a matter of time before Iran is no longer able to project any force in the gulf. And all the countries in the Middle East will be happy it happened.

thejohnconwayOP1mo ago

Trump’s talking about a “joint venture” with Iran for charging tolls, weird that he feels that might have to make this concession, right?

https://x.com/jonkarl/status/2041839012097229086?s=20

He’s mentioned this possibility before, by the way.

refurb1mo ago

We’re 5 years into Trump being President and you still take what he says at face value?

Most of what he says is to rile up the people opposing him.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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refurb1mo ago

Well the “expert” analysis you mentioned said the world would grind to a halt last month but that didn’t happen did it?

thejohnconwayOP1mo ago

Trump’s talking about a “joint venture” with Iran for charging tolls, weird that he feels that might have to make this concession, right?

https://x.com/jonkarl/status/2041839012097229086?s=20

He’s mentioned this possibility before, by the way.

refurb1mo ago

We’re 5 years into Trump being President and you still take what he says at face value?

Most of what he says is to rile up the people opposing him.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse