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0 pointslowsong2mo ago0 comments

> However, code quality is becoming less and less relevant in the age of AI coding, and to ignore that is to have our heads stuck in the sand. Just because we don't like it doesn't mean it's not true.

It's the opposite, code quality is becoming more and more relevant. Before now you could only neglect quality for so long before the time to implement any change became so long as to completely stall out a project.

That's still true, the only thing AI has changed is it's let you charge further and further into technical debt before you see the problems. But now instead of the problems being a gradual ramp up it's a cliff, the moment you hit the point where the current crop of models can't operate on it effectively any more you're completely lost.

> We are in the very earliest months of AI actually being somewhat competent at this. It's unlikely that it will plateau and stop improving.

We hit the plateau on model improvement a few years back. We've only continued to see any improvement at all because of the exponential increase of money poured into it.

> It's only trending in one direction. And it isn't going to stop.

Sure it can. When the bubble pops there will be a question: is using an agent cost effective? Even if you think it is at $200/month/user, we'll see how that holds up once the cost skyrockets after OpenAI and Anthropic run out of money to burn and their investors want some returns.

Think about it this way: If your job survived the popularity of offshoring to engineers paid 10% of your salary, why would AI tooling kill it?

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csallen2mo ago· 2 in thread

> That's still true, the only thing AI has changed is it's let you charge further and further into technical debt before you see the problems. But now instead of the problems being a gradual ramp up it's a cliff, the moment you hit the point where the current crop of models can't operate on it effectively any more you're completely lost.

What you're missing is that fewer and fewer projects are going to need a ton of technical depth.

I have friends who'd never written a line of code in their lives who now use multiple simple vibe-coded apps at work daily.

> We hit the plateau on model improvement a few years back. We've only continued to see any improvement at all because of the exponential increase of money poured into it.

The genie is out of the bottle. Humanity is not going to stop pouring more and more money into AI.

> Sure it can. When the bubble pops there will be a question: is using an agent cost effective? Even if you think it is at $200/month/user, we'll see how that holds up once the cost skyrockets after OpenAI and Anthropic run out of money to burn and their investors want some returns.

The AI bubble isn't going to pop. This is like saying the internet bubble is going to pop in 1999. Maybe you will be right about short term economic trends, but the underlying technology is here to stay and will only trend in one direction: better, cheaper, faster, more available, more widely adopted, etc.

lowsongOP2mo ago

> What you're missing is that fewer and fewer projects are going to need a ton of technical depth. > I have friends who'd never written a line of code in their lives who now use multiple simple vibe-coded apps at work daily.

Again it's the opposite. A landscape of vibe coded micro apps is a landscape of buggy, vulnerable, points of failure. When you buy a product, software or hardware, you do more than buy the functionality you buy the assurance it will work. AI does not change this. Vibe code an app to automate your lightbulbs all you like, but nobody is going to be paying millions of dollars a year on vibe coded slop apps and apps like that is what keeps the tech industry afloat.

> Humanity is not going to stop pouring more and more money into AI.

There's no more money to pour into it. Even if you did, we're out of GPU capacity and we're running low on the power and infrastructure to run these giant data centres, and it takes decades to bring new fabs or power plants online. It is physically impossible to continue this level of growth in AI investment. Every company that's invested into AI has done so on the promise of increased improvement, but the moment that stops being true everything shifts.

> The AI bubble isn't going to pop. This is like saying the internet bubble is going to pop in 1999.

The internet bubble did pop. What happened after is an assessment of how much the tech is actually worth, and the future we have now 26 years later bears little resemblance to the hype in 1999. What makes you think this will be different?

Once the hype fades, the long-term unsuitability for large projects becomes obvious, and token costs increase by ten or one hundred times, are businesses really going to pay thousands of dollars a month on agent subscriptions to vibe code little apps here and there?

csallen2mo ago

> Again it's the opposite. A landscape of vibe coded micro apps is a landscape of buggy, vulnerable, points of failure. When you buy a product, software or hardware, you do more than buy the functionality you buy the assurance it will work. AI does not change this. Vibe code an app to automate your lightbulbs all you like, but nobody is going to be paying millions of dollars a year on vibe coded slop apps and apps like that is what keeps the tech industry afloat.

This is what everyone says when technology democratizes something that was previously reserved for a small number of experts.

When the printing press was invented, scribes complained that it would lead to a flood of poorly written, untrustworthy information. And you know what? It did. And nobody cares.

When the web was new, the news media complained about the same thing. A landscape of poorly researched error-ridden microblogs with spelling mistakes and inaccurate information. And you know what? They were right. That's exactly what the internet led to. And now that's the world we live in, and 90% of those news media companies are dead or irrelevant.

And here you are continuing the tradition of discussing a new landscape of buggy, vulnerable products. And the same thing will happen and already is happening. People don't care. When you democratize technology and you give people the ability to do something useful they never could do before without having to spend years becoming an expert, they do it en masse, and they accept the tradeoffs. This has happened time and time again.

> The internet bubble did pop... the future we have now 26 years later bears little resemblance to the hype in 1999. What makes you think this will be different?

You cut out the part where I said it only popped economically, but the technology continued to improve. And the situation we have now is even better than the hype in 1999:

They predicted video on demand over the internet. They predicted the expansion of broadband. They predicted the dominance of e-commerce. They predicted incumbents being disrupted. All of this happened. Look at the most valuable companies on earth right now.

If anything, their predictions were understated. They didn't predict mobile, or social media. They thought that people would never trust SaaS because it's insecure. They didn't predict Netflix dominating Hollywood. The internet ate MORE than they thought it would.

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