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0 pointsjvanderbot1mo ago0 comments

This is a fairly well trod argument. It also requires a fairly long series of strawman arguments to come together. Yes, there are challenges, but ...

The reality of Hormuz was well known decades ago - even in 2002 Millenium exercise a bunch of speedboats and motorcycles stopped the US Navy from opening hormuz. [1]

Moskva was taken down by a well coordinated strike that distracted its one (1!) fire control radar. It was also alone. Those are important factors. [2]

A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones.

It is entirely possible that the US Navy is commanded by myopic idiots who fall for those tricks, but I doubt it.

Finally, it's not entirely clear that the large population won't, itself, become at least partially an asset of the resistance.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

[2]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/14/ukrain...

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dlisboa1mo ago

> A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones.

Russia has literally taken over the industrial heart of Ukraine in the east and southeast regions. With boots on the ground, tanks, everything. They claim it as their land. And yet they can't stop Ukraine from building drones.

That's far more than the US/Israel have done or are willing to do. It's extremely realistic that they do not have the capacity to destroy Iran's drone making capabilities, ever.

jvanderbotOP1mo ago

Think about it this way - if Russia had the US Navy's task force near Ukraine, and the level of air dominance that US has in Iran, do you think Russia would do anything differently? Would they, for example, be making 100s - 1000s of daily aerial strikes anywhere in Ukraine?

Because US _does_ have that, and so it _does_ significantly change the calculus. Unless you think it doesn't. In which case, we just disagree.

dlisboa1mo ago

In the matter of drone production, which was my point, it doesn’t change the calculus. It is evident that short of regime change or popular upheaval Iran can produce or import drones indefinitely and the only thing that can stop it is a ground invasion.

The US Navy or any navy can’t destroy that production from the air.

The evidence is pretty clear on that. We see that is already the case in Ukraine or with Hezbollah and Ansar Allah.

jvanderbotOP1mo ago

Option b - we just disagree then

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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dlisboa1mo ago

That's far more than the US/Israel have done or are willing to do. It's extremely realistic that they do not have the capacity to destroy Iran's drone making capabilities, ever.

jvanderbotOP1mo ago

Because US _does_ have that, and so it _does_ significantly change the calculus. Unless you think it doesn't. In which case, we just disagree.

dlisboa1mo ago

The US Navy or any navy can’t destroy that production from the air.

The evidence is pretty clear on that. We see that is already the case in Ukraine or with Hezbollah and Ansar Allah.

jvanderbotOP1mo ago

Option b - we just disagree then

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse