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0 pointsalephnerd1mo ago0 comments

> Did Iran really have allies in Arab Sunni ruled countries though

Yes. Qatar due to Iran's support of the Thani family during the tumultuous 1990s [0] and the blockade [1], Sudan under Bashir [2] and now under the Army [3], Tunisia [4] due to ties with Ennadha, Algeria until 2025 [5] due to Morocco and Israel's close defense cooperation, and Kuwait due to economic and clan ties [6].

> Pretty much all of them already see non-Arab Shia Iran as an enemy

Only those states directly aligned with Saudi or the UAE (they are not the same team) view Iran with hostility becuase of Saudi Arabia and Iran's perennial rivalry over the MidEast.

[0] - https://www.danielpipes.org/6317/hamad-bin-jasim-bin-jabr-al...

[1] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/6/25/iran-hassan-rouhani...

[2] - https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/166344/235_Bodansky.pdf

[3] - https://www.bic-rhr.com/research/new-old-player-town-sudan-i...

[4] - https://iramcenter.org/en/inside-the-complexity-of-iran-tuni...

[5] - https://nouvellerevuepolitique.fr/hichem-aboud-comment-alger...

[6] - https://web.archive.org/web/20220717062931/http://www.payvan...

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mullingitover1mo ago

> Yes. Qatar

Qatar, the country hosting the Al Udeid Air Base, the biggest US military base in the middle east? That Qatar?

alephnerdOP1mo ago

The US only established Al Udeid in 1996.

Iran on the other hand protected the Thani family during the failed 1996 countercoup, as well as collaborated with Qatar on extracting LNG from the Gulf.

In the real world, countries compartamentalize relations and are not binary in nature.

This is how India can both arm Israel [0] as well as transit Hormuz with Iranian backing [1] and continue to operate Chabahar Port [2] despite neighboring Konarak Port being hit [3].

When countries break this norm of compartmentalization, that is when they become actively belligerent.

Also, by this logic (which is flawed), we would be justified in striking Iran, as Iran has aided and abetted Russia in their war against Ukraine, thus Iran can arguably be treated as another front of the larger US-Russia and by extension US-China conflict.

[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2024/6/26/india-expor...

[1] - https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-among-five-nati...

[2] - https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy/no-damage-to...

[3] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxzzkkkwjqo

mullingitover1mo ago

I realize Qatar is in an "it's complicated" relationship, it's just amusing to me that people feign shock that Iran would consider them fair game while omitting the detail of them kinda being a client state hosting a huge US military base.

alephnerdOP1mo ago

The thing is, if we accept the norms that Qatar can be targeted for kinetic action by Iran for hosting US assets or by the US for hosting Iranian assets, then that opens a MASSIVE can of worms.

This means Ukraine has the precedent in place to target the Chongqing–Xinjiang–Europe railway in Russia in retaliation for Chinese support of Russia [0].

This also means all of Europe is fair game to be striked by Russia in retaliation for supporting Ukraine [2].

This also means South Korea considering rearming Ukraine [4] due to North Korean involvement in the Ukraine War could make it a direct belligerent against Russia.

This is why sentiments hardened globally and especially amongst Gulf States once they were targeted by Iran.

Accepting that nations like Qatar, Turkiye, and Azerbaijan that have an avowed policy of compartmentalized relations are fair game to strike means we have to accept we are in a de facto World War.

The attempted strike on Diego Garcia was similarly destabilizing in it's implications [5]

[0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqing%E2%80%93Xinjiang%E2%...

[1] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/10/zelenskyy-warns-ru...

[2] - https://european-union.europa.eu/priorities-and-actions/eu-s...

[3] - https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-saudi-arabia-mbs-gulf-...

[4] - https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/20260220/korea-m...

[5] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47469049

3 more replies

seanmcdirmid1mo ago

That is useful, thanks! Iran always seems like they have more enemies than friends, but I guess I overplayed the Shia/Sunni divide.

alephnerdOP1mo ago

> Iran always seems like they have more enemies than friends

Because the core of the Iranian Revolution is quite similar to Maoism [0] but also very interested in exporting the revolution abroad.

You have to remember that the Iranian Revolution only happened in 1979, and most of Iran's modern leadership were foot soldiers and even leadership during Iran's Cultural Revolution [1] in the 1980s (eg. Rouhani, Larijani, Aref, Arafi).

Imagine if China today was ruled by active Red Guard, or if the 1976 autocoup failed - that's Iran, but with a dose of Islamism.

> I guess I overplayed the Shia/Sunni divide.

Yep. In fact, a number of Sunni states saw contemporary attempts to mimic the Iranian Revolution such as in Saudi Arabia with the Kaaba Siege, the Afghan Revolution in 1979 which led to the Soviet Occupation, and the burning the US Embassy in Islamabad in 1979 [2].

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47108706

[1] - https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_U.S._embassy_burning_in_I...

seanmcdirmid1mo ago

I took a Chinese course in Beijing with the son of an Iranian diplomat as a classmate and we did not gel, but frankly thats my only experience. The funny thing was that the guy was a huge womanizer/drinker, which I also hear is normal for Iran. Iranians actually seem quite liberal by Muslim standards (if it wasn't for the whole revolutionary guard/cleric leadership, again by my limited maybe outdated experience), which is weird when our side has the KSA, one of the most conservative countries on earth.

It is a pity really, Iran is on my bucket list for food, culture, and natural beauty. More so than any other country in that area, its too bad about the whole "death to America" thing.

alephnerdOP1mo ago

> son of an Iranian diplomat as a classmate and we did not gel, but frankly thats my only experience. The funny thing was that the guy was a huge womanizer/drinker, which I also hear is normal for Iran

It's similar to China in that regard - rhetoric doesn't matter and you always look out for number one.

There's a reason why socially speaking China's Harvard remains Harvard even despite Peking and Tsinghua becoming global tier institutions, and why leadership who should supposedly be earning a couple thousand dollars a year are chauffeured in Audi A8s with full protocol in Beijing.

Most normal people are chill and average, but there's still a whole separate world of people within a small selectorate.

> which is weird when our side has the KSA, one of the most conservative countries on earth

KSA has socially liberalized as well, and the same style of hijab as you would see in Iran is the norm.

That said, unlike Iran's incumbent leadership, MBS and much of the governmental apparatus is highly likely to liberalize in the UAE manner in the next 3-5 years. The main blocker has been succession - MBS isn't officially king yet, as King Salman continues to reign.

That said, it would still remain an authoritarian state.

> It is a pity really, Iran is on my bucket list for food, culture, and natural beauty. More so than any other country in that area, its too bad about the whole "death to America" thing

Yep. It is what it is.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

mullingitover1mo ago

> Yes. Qatar

Qatar, the country hosting the Al Udeid Air Base, the biggest US military base in the middle east? That Qatar?

alephnerdOP1mo ago

The US only established Al Udeid in 1996.

Iran on the other hand protected the Thani family during the failed 1996 countercoup, as well as collaborated with Qatar on extracting LNG from the Gulf.

In the real world, countries compartamentalize relations and are not binary in nature.

This is how India can both arm Israel [0] as well as transit Hormuz with Iranian backing [1] and continue to operate Chabahar Port [2] despite neighboring Konarak Port being hit [3].

When countries break this norm of compartmentalization, that is when they become actively belligerent.

[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2024/6/26/india-expor...

[1] - https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-among-five-nati...

[2] - https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy/no-damage-to...

[3] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxzzkkkwjqo

mullingitover1mo ago

alephnerdOP1mo ago

The thing is, if we accept the norms that Qatar can be targeted for kinetic action by Iran for hosting US assets or by the US for hosting Iranian assets, then that opens a MASSIVE can of worms.

This means Ukraine has the precedent in place to target the Chongqing–Xinjiang–Europe railway in Russia in retaliation for Chinese support of Russia [0].

This also means all of Europe is fair game to be striked by Russia in retaliation for supporting Ukraine [2].

This also means South Korea considering rearming Ukraine [4] due to North Korean involvement in the Ukraine War could make it a direct belligerent against Russia.

This is why sentiments hardened globally and especially amongst Gulf States once they were targeted by Iran.

Accepting that nations like Qatar, Turkiye, and Azerbaijan that have an avowed policy of compartmentalized relations are fair game to strike means we have to accept we are in a de facto World War.

The attempted strike on Diego Garcia was similarly destabilizing in it's implications [5]

[0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqing%E2%80%93Xinjiang%E2%...

[1] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/10/zelenskyy-warns-ru...

[2] - https://european-union.europa.eu/priorities-and-actions/eu-s...

[3] - https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-saudi-arabia-mbs-gulf-...

[4] - https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/20260220/korea-m...

[5] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47469049

3 more replies

seanmcdirmid1mo ago

That is useful, thanks! Iran always seems like they have more enemies than friends, but I guess I overplayed the Shia/Sunni divide.

alephnerdOP1mo ago

> Iran always seems like they have more enemies than friends

Because the core of the Iranian Revolution is quite similar to Maoism [0] but also very interested in exporting the revolution abroad.

Imagine if China today was ruled by active Red Guard, or if the 1976 autocoup failed - that's Iran, but with a dose of Islamism.

> I guess I overplayed the Shia/Sunni divide.

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47108706

[1] - https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_U.S._embassy_burning_in_I...

seanmcdirmid1mo ago

It is a pity really, Iran is on my bucket list for food, culture, and natural beauty. More so than any other country in that area, its too bad about the whole "death to America" thing.

alephnerdOP1mo ago

It's similar to China in that regard - rhetoric doesn't matter and you always look out for number one.

Most normal people are chill and average, but there's still a whole separate world of people within a small selectorate.

> which is weird when our side has the KSA, one of the most conservative countries on earth

KSA has socially liberalized as well, and the same style of hijab as you would see in Iran is the norm.

That said, it would still remain an authoritarian state.

> It is a pity really, Iran is on my bucket list for food, culture, and natural beauty. More so than any other country in that area, its too bad about the whole "death to America" thing

Yep. It is what it is.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse