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0 pointsLeifCarrotson1mo ago0 comments

That was a Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian [1] but your point stands.

Prediction markets create incentives to predict the outcome of an event, which can be done in one of three ways: develop better models to predict the event, affect the event, or affect the reporting on the event.

[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-o...

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MaysonL1mo ago

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

LeifCarrotsonOP1mo ago

That's only for futures that are easy to invent, for others it is way easier to just bribe or threaten a journalist (works on most journalists, YMMV) to say that you've invented it and then run off with the money before anyone can prove you wrong.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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MaysonL1mo ago

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

LeifCarrotsonOP1mo ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse