undefined | Better HN

0 pointssysguest16h ago0 comments

idk this move, along with firing missiles even to non-combatant countries, is going to fuk-up iran...

I mean, even before the $2M toll, if you're kuwait/UAE/saudi/etc, what choice do you have? form a coalition against iran

now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships...

so what choice do all those strait-using countries have? pay $2M or more, even after US leaves?

nope... they'll form a coalition against iran

it's highly unfortunate that trump started the war, but iran's way of things are just making more enemies -- it'll pay with regime change within few months

0 comments

klipt16h ago

> now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships...

But the strait has two sides and Iran only controls one side. The UAE/Oman on the other side could equally threaten to attack Iranian ships unless Iran pays them a toll.

citrin_ru16h ago

According to this map https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Strait_of_hormuz_full.jpg shipping lines are in Oman's territorial waters. Iran controls the whole area by creating a risk that a ship can be attacked. And if Oman would try to impose payments it would break the UN convention on the Law of the Sea.

sysguestOP16h ago

well I guess that makes Iran really fked up...

the strait-using countries are surely going to "make a lesson out of" iran exactly for that reason

zinodaur15h ago

I think what we should have learned from this is that it's extremely hard to "make a lesson out of" Iran if you depend on moving oil past their borders... the gulf states are much more exposed to this than the US is, and much less powerful.

They are also not neutral - they have been paying in to the US protection racket, and are discovering that their payments haven't bought much.

1 more reply

andriy_koval11h ago

> they'll form a coalition against iran

and do what?

JumpCrisscross11h ago

> and do what?

Bomb shit. The Saudi and UAE militaries aren't anything to sneeze at. (The area cross the Strait from the UAE is majority Arab [1].)

I think it's generally good strategy to not provoke new belligerents against oneself.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran

andriy_koval10h ago

Saudi and UAE has less air power than US+Israel, whatever could be bombed already bombed.

But Saudi and UAE are ruled by rich regimes who benefit from oil revenue, and very vulnarable to Iran strikes, they more likely will pay those $2m.

1 more reply

Der_Einzige9h ago

The Saudi and UAE militaries are indeed something to sneeze at. Go read the comments about them from anyone in the US military whose worked with them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/19ckc6l/saudi_a...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/qhmbog/why_i...

https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/hqfatn/why_are_...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/fbd97k/is_...

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointssysguest16h ago0 comments

idk this move, along with firing missiles even to non-combatant countries, is going to fuk-up iran...

I mean, even before the $2M toll, if you're kuwait/UAE/saudi/etc, what choice do you have? form a coalition against iran

now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships...

so what choice do all those strait-using countries have? pay $2M or more, even after US leaves?

nope... they'll form a coalition against iran

it's highly unfortunate that trump started the war, but iran's way of things are just making more enemies -- it'll pay with regime change within few months

0 comments

klipt16h ago

> now.. with that $2M toll, iran just learnt it can just toll the ships...

But the strait has two sides and Iran only controls one side. The UAE/Oman on the other side could equally threaten to attack Iranian ships unless Iran pays them a toll.

citrin_ru16h ago

sysguestOP16h ago

well I guess that makes Iran really fked up...

the strait-using countries are surely going to "make a lesson out of" iran exactly for that reason

zinodaur15h ago

They are also not neutral - they have been paying in to the US protection racket, and are discovering that their payments haven't bought much.

1 more reply

andriy_koval11h ago

> they'll form a coalition against iran

and do what?

JumpCrisscross11h ago

> and do what?

Bomb shit. The Saudi and UAE militaries aren't anything to sneeze at. (The area cross the Strait from the UAE is majority Arab [1].)

I think it's generally good strategy to not provoke new belligerents against oneself.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran

andriy_koval10h ago

Saudi and UAE has less air power than US+Israel, whatever could be bombed already bombed.

But Saudi and UAE are ruled by rich regimes who benefit from oil revenue, and very vulnarable to Iran strikes, they more likely will pay those $2m.

1 more reply

Der_Einzige9h ago

The Saudi and UAE militaries are indeed something to sneeze at. Go read the comments about them from anyone in the US military whose worked with them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/19ckc6l/saudi_a...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/qhmbog/why_i...

https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/hqfatn/why_are_...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/fbd97k/is_...

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse