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0 pointsmikkupikku2d ago0 comments

Logical fallacies are vastly overrated. Unless the conversation is formal logic in the first place, "logical fallacies" are just a way to apply quick pattern matching to dismiss people without spending time on more substantive responses. In this case, both you and the other are speculating about the near future of a thing, neither of you knows.

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datsci_est_20152d ago

Hard to make a more substantive response when the OP’s entire comment was a one-sentence logical fallacy. I’m not cherry-picking here.

> In this case, both you and the other are speculating about the near future of a thing, neither of you knows.

One of us is making a much grander claim than the other:

  - LLMs have limitless potential for growth; because they are not capable of something today does not mean they won’t be capable of it tomorrow
  - LLMs have fundamental limitations due to their underlying architecture and therefore are not limitless in capability

fenomas2d ago

The post you replied to was:

> We went from 2 + 7 = 11 to "solved a frontier math problem" in 3 years, yet people don't think this will improve?

All that says is that the speaker thinks models will improve past where they are today. Not that it's a logical certainty (the first thing you jumped on them for), and certainly not anything about "limitless potential for growth" (which nobody even mentioned). With replies like this, invoking fallacies and attacking claims nobody made, you're adding a lot of heat and very little light here (and a few other threads on the page).

datsci_est_20151d ago

> All that says is that the speaker thinks models will improve past where they are today. Not that it's a logical certainty

Exceedingly generous interpretation in my opinion. I tend to interpret rhetorical questions of that form as “it’s so obvious that I shouldn’t even have to ask it”.

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mikkupikkuOP2d ago

Better put than I could have.

graemep2d ago

OK, its not a logical fallacy, its a false assumption.

The belief in the inevitability of progress is a bad assumption. Especially if you assume a particular technology will keep advancing.

mikkupikkuOP2d ago

We won't know if his assumption is false until time passes and moves future speculation into the empirical present.

graemep2d ago

A possibility is not a fact. Assuming a possibility will happen is not justified. Therefore it is false as an assumption, even if it is true it is a possiblity.

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datsci_est_20152d ago

Hard to make a more substantive response when the OP’s entire comment was a one-sentence logical fallacy. I’m not cherry-picking here.

> In this case, both you and the other are speculating about the near future of a thing, neither of you knows.

One of us is making a much grander claim than the other:

  - LLMs have limitless potential for growth; because they are not capable of something today does not mean they won’t be capable of it tomorrow
  - LLMs have fundamental limitations due to their underlying architecture and therefore are not limitless in capability

fenomas2d ago

The post you replied to was:

> We went from 2 + 7 = 11 to "solved a frontier math problem" in 3 years, yet people don't think this will improve?

datsci_est_20151d ago

> All that says is that the speaker thinks models will improve past where they are today. Not that it's a logical certainty

Exceedingly generous interpretation in my opinion. I tend to interpret rhetorical questions of that form as “it’s so obvious that I shouldn’t even have to ask it”.

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mikkupikkuOP2d ago

Better put than I could have.

graemep2d ago

OK, its not a logical fallacy, its a false assumption.

The belief in the inevitability of progress is a bad assumption. Especially if you assume a particular technology will keep advancing.

mikkupikkuOP2d ago

We won't know if his assumption is false until time passes and moves future speculation into the empirical present.

graemep2d ago

A possibility is not a fact. Assuming a possibility will happen is not justified. Therefore it is false as an assumption, even if it is true it is a possiblity.

1 more reply

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