undefined | Better HN

0 pointsbrabel1mo ago0 comments

They gave a widely accepted way to estimate value, and your counter argument is that that is inaccurate. Fine but how can you be confident about that? I see only one way which is for you to come up with a better way and then show that by your better estimation, COCOMO is bad. Until you do that, all your argument goes down to is vibes.

Your example about OpenClaw works exactly against your own argument by the way: OpenAI acquired it for millions by all accounts.

0 comments

sarchertech1mo ago

COCOMO has been shown to be inaccurate numerous times. Google it. Here’s one result.

“A very high MMRE (1.00) indicates that, on average, the COCOMO model misses about 100% of the actual project effort. This means that the estimate generated by the model can be double or even greater than the actual effort. This shows that the COCOMO model is not able to provide estimates that are close to the actual value.”

No one in the industry has taken COCOMO seriously for nearly 2 decades.

>OpenClaw

1. OpenAI bought the vibes and the creator. Why would they buy the code? It’s open source.

2. You don’t seriously think OpenClaw needs half a million lines of code to provide the functionality it does do you?

Seriously just go look at the code. No one is defending that as being an efficient use of code.

https://journal.fkpt.org/index.php/BIT/article/download/2027...

brabelOP1mo ago

> No one in the industry has taken COCOMO seriously for nearly 2 decades.

The funny thing is that we've just discussed how people do take it seriously. It's just that you don't like that. And what do you offer as an alternative?

Like I said, vibes. You think that the value of some software is something you can only "feel". That's not how an engineer thinks. If you're engineer you should know that if you can't measure it, you can't say anything at all about it. Which means you cannot discount any alternative method until you've got a better way. But clearly you can't think like an engineer.

sarchertech1mo ago

I don’t know what to tell you. All the evidence says COCOMO is too inaccurate to use. Show me evidence that says it’s accurate.

Just because someone wrote a book and a few bankruptcy trustees used it doesn’t magically make it accurate. Just because something is systematic doesn’t mean it’s worth using.

If you do a bit of googling you’ll find that the majority of studies show that systemic models don’t outperform expert guesses. So yep vibes are general just as good.

Show me a large tech company that currently uses COCOMO to plan software projects.

Also if you are a dev outside of NASA or another safety critical industry and you think you’re an engineer, you’re kidding yourself.

Oh and try not to sound like an asshole next time.

jonahx1mo ago

Many people also take tarot card reading seriously as a way to predict the future.

As an engineer, you are not required to come up with a better way of predicting the future before you can dismiss tarot. You need only show that it doesn't work.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

sarchertech1mo ago

COCOMO has been shown to be inaccurate numerous times. Google it. Here’s one result.

No one in the industry has taken COCOMO seriously for nearly 2 decades.

>OpenClaw

1. OpenAI bought the vibes and the creator. Why would they buy the code? It’s open source.

2. You don’t seriously think OpenClaw needs half a million lines of code to provide the functionality it does do you?

Seriously just go look at the code. No one is defending that as being an efficient use of code.

https://journal.fkpt.org/index.php/BIT/article/download/2027...

brabelOP1mo ago

> No one in the industry has taken COCOMO seriously for nearly 2 decades.

The funny thing is that we've just discussed how people do take it seriously. It's just that you don't like that. And what do you offer as an alternative?

sarchertech1mo ago

I don’t know what to tell you. All the evidence says COCOMO is too inaccurate to use. Show me evidence that says it’s accurate.

Just because someone wrote a book and a few bankruptcy trustees used it doesn’t magically make it accurate. Just because something is systematic doesn’t mean it’s worth using.

If you do a bit of googling you’ll find that the majority of studies show that systemic models don’t outperform expert guesses. So yep vibes are general just as good.

Show me a large tech company that currently uses COCOMO to plan software projects.

Also if you are a dev outside of NASA or another safety critical industry and you think you’re an engineer, you’re kidding yourself.

Oh and try not to sound like an asshole next time.

jonahx1mo ago

Many people also take tarot card reading seriously as a way to predict the future.

As an engineer, you are not required to come up with a better way of predicting the future before you can dismiss tarot. You need only show that it doesn't work.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse