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0 pointsfinancetechbro8d ago0 comments

I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA”

On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.

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chollida18d ago

Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:)

> On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO.

The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus.

Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count.

And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters.

You go public when you get the chance.

I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!

financetechbroOP8d ago

Current valuation of OAI is $840bn. 10% float is $80bn, largest US IPO was BABA at $24bn, how is this not massive?

chollida18d ago

Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge.

Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.

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freetanga8d ago

Most fund managers have an IQ of 50. And they get paid by fees. They will put your pension money into OpenAI without a doubt, as it’s easier to participate, crash and shrug that stay out.

“Nobody got fired for hiring McKinsey” in the PE bros era.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsfinancetechbro8d ago0 comments

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chollida18d ago

Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:)

> On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO.

The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus.

Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count.

You go public when you get the chance.

I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!

financetechbroOP8d ago

Current valuation of OAI is $840bn. 10% float is $80bn, largest US IPO was BABA at $24bn, how is this not massive?

chollida18d ago

Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge.

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freetanga8d ago

Most fund managers have an IQ of 50. And they get paid by fees. They will put your pension money into OpenAI without a doubt, as it’s easier to participate, crash and shrug that stay out.

“Nobody got fired for hiring McKinsey” in the PE bros era.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse