"You're not allowed to tell me that the fledgling technology that has been getting steadily better for the past 3 years is likely to continue getting better." ...and there's my cue to close the window.
We've already seen signs that progress is slowing. Companies are so desperate to try and prove that this is linear or even expontial growth. But in reality it feels logarithmic.
People need answers and decisions now, not in some magical future. The moment the stock dries on AI, suddenly "the future" won't be a good topic. Investors are cashing in on this whole economy as we speak.
My FAANG employer launched a service ~6 months ago that today seems millions of DAUs. This service was 100% vibe coded. This service was created 20x faster than the median launch, and had notably fewer issues than the median launch. If AI stopped improving today, it would be a technological leap equivalent to a new high-level language paradigm for us.
Post Opus 4.5, this pundit who does not write software has concluded that the case for coding agents has gotten weaker, not stronger, to the point where we might as well declare the debate settled in his favor. It takes him 8,000 words to do so.
