The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working. Here is why (opens in new tab)

Sure, starting a prolonged war, having the Strait of Hormuz closed and its military bases destroyed while having the largest aircraft carrier forced to retreat, is all part of a larger plan. Everything going as predicted.

“Tehran was less than two weeks away from enriching enough uranium for one nuclear bomb, according to US intelligence assessments.”

https://youtu.be/Vc_NanZ-Jos?si=HmZQyGZTG1VgqYaP

If it's working, it's working slowly and in a very, very bad way.

>China, Tehran’s largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut.

We have literally had like 5 headlines from major news agencies over the past few days confirming that Iran is exporting its own oil with what looks like close to 0 problems.

Yeah, right. No wonder - it's an article by the Qatari Al Jazeera.

It’s remarkable how incompetent Iranian security system has been. This has been going on for over a decade. They just can’t fix their intelligence failures.

Who on earth uses consumer phones at this level (which was the case among their elites till last year)?

Why do they walk in open streets and reside in residential buildings now, and all gather in single location?

Disregarding the fact that the author has an interest in hyping US-Israel achievements in the war (as he admits he is associated with the US Department of State and intelligence agencies) it is objectively true that Iran's military leadership and infrastructure has been definitely degraded. If you factor in the assassination of Iran's leaders, Iran has also lost substantial experiential knowledge that is a setback and something its new political and military leaders will have to struggle with and re-acquire over time. Perhaps we are already seeing evidence of that with the hubris of the new Iranian leadership refusing the possibilities of a diplomatic engagement and / or a ceasefire (to provide some kind of exit ramp for a politically hassled Trump + Netanyahu, which could de-escalate the violence). (We see this kind of politically inexperienced narrow vision with Zelensky too, in Ukraine, who still unrealistically believes that his country can militarily force a nuclear armed, militarily superior opponent to end the hostilities on his terms).

While the Global South currently sympathises with Iran, prolonged warfare will disrupt the economies of many a country (due to the high energy prices), and sympathies and value-based politics will invariably be tossed in favour of increasing pressure on the weaker party - Iran - to end the conflict (possibly on politically unfavourable terms). Its neighbours will also become increasingly hostile and less tolerable to attacks on their soil. Moreover, prolonged warfare is also likely to degrade Iran's economic and military infrastructure further.

True that despite facing a militarily superior force, Iran has the ability to hurt its opponents, and has displayed great resilience in bearing hurts to itself too. However, such "scorched earth" policy needs to be matched with wise political pragmatism to not become a self-defeatist policy - after all, the strength of the genocidal regime of Netanyahu and the imperialist administration of Trump is their wanton disregard for international laws, human lives, human rights and the ability to feed of these kind of warfare and destruction to build-up their political reputation. A politically hassled Netanyahu and Trump are both also desperate politicians trying to avoid possible loss of power and jail time with this war, which means that they may increasingly resort to bombing of civilians and civilians infrastructure too to spin it as as a "win" against "muslim terrorists".

All that said, prolonged warfare against Iran will also hurt both the US and Israel.

The Americans needs to be mindful of their history with Iran - it is their political meddling in Iran that turned Iran hostile towards them and Trump isn't the first US president to try and salvage his presidency by attacking Iran. Jimmy Carter's Operation Eagle Claw (a military operation to rescue Americans captured by Iranian revolutionaries) was a failure that cost Carter his Presidency. Ronald Reagan, who replaced him, also initiated a military operation against Iran, through Iraq - the Iraq-Iran-Contra affair became Reagan's largest political scandal and severely damaged his reputation. The US invasion of Iraq strengthened Iranian influence in the region, and weakened the policy of dual containment of both Iran and Iraq. Any goal of militarily "defeating" Iran will have to keep the post-war Iraq scenario in mind. Iran is a highly educated society with women even outnumbering men in colleges. During the Bangladesh Liberation wars, one of the reasons the indian military was able to subdue the Pakistani army there so quickly was due to the educated Bangladeshi youths who formed the guerilla force of the resistance. Indian Generals observed that these educated youngsters were quick learners and thus easier to militarily train for intelligence gathering, resistance and saboteuring. Iran has a population of around 90 million. If Iran is "defeated" (occupied or not), even if 1% of their population turn to "terrorism" to defend themselves and continue the fight, we are talking about nearly 1 million highly-educated "terrorists" in the middle-east region.

For Israel too, the stakes are high. Nentahyahu's attack on his own country's democracy to become a Jewish Ayatollah -like dictator, and his genocidal warfare in Gaza has caused great damage to Israel's reputation internationally. Historic support for Israel amongst Americans is the lowest. The Iran war is not popular in the US - the more the American military gets involved and prolongs the Iran war and the more American soldiers die, Israel's reputation in America will suffer. Gallup notes that sympathy for Israel amongst the Democrats has dropped drastically, so much so that more Democrats (65%) support Palestinians than Israel today (Israelis No Longer Ahead in Americans' Middle East Sympathies - https://news.gallup.com/poll/702440/israelis-no-longer-ahead... ). While support for Israel amongst Republicans remain high, Republicans youths are increasingly distrusting and less sympathetic of Israel and more sympathetic towards Palestinians today (National Poll: Younger Republicans Are Diverging From Party Leadership On Israel - https://www.imeupolicyproject.org/polls/gop-israel-2025 ). So there is a real danger of Israel losing support amongst the Republicans too, thus curbing Israel's political influence in American politics. Without American political and military support, Israel will never be able to effectively defend itself. Everyone (including Trump), blames Israel for this war. Nobody in the world wants a prolonged war that will make oil and gas costlier and hurt their economy. Considering all this, seeking a military defeat of Iran may offer short-term gains but could be strategically short-sighted in the long run for Israel.

A prolonged war thus benefits no one. The war now hinges on the political egos of Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenie.

Poetic justice how Qatar's propaganda wire of Al Jazeera switches so easily from anti-Israel to pro-Israel.

All it took is two weeks of reality of what happens when you support the most extreme elements in the area, it all comes back hitting you in the face.