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0 pointseloisant11d ago0 comments

It's not the chance of winning that matters, it's the mean expected value.

If you have a 50% chance of losing $2 or gaining $1, you have a negative expected value and that's bad.

If you have a 10% chance of gaining 100$ and 90% chance of losing $1, that's an expected value of $9 and it's a great deal.

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thayne10d ago

Yes that is bad, but it isn't as bad as the expected value of a Powerball lottery ticket.

I didn't say it isn't bad, just that it isn't the worst.

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0 pointseloisant11d ago0 comments

It's not the chance of winning that matters, it's the mean expected value.

If you have a 50% chance of losing $2 or gaining $1, you have a negative expected value and that's bad.

If you have a 10% chance of gaining 100$ and 90% chance of losing $1, that's an expected value of $9 and it's a great deal.

thayne10d ago

Yes that is bad, but it isn't as bad as the expected value of a Powerball lottery ticket.

I didn't say it isn't bad, just that it isn't the worst.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse