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0 pointsdatsci_est_201511d ago0 comments

> Prediction markets as a useful tool are predicated on insider information. The punters without edge are the bait incentivizing the insiders.

And like any other gambling (see 1919 Black Sox), they can also incentivize behavior for actors who can influence the outcome of what’s being gambled upon.

Personally, that’s a significant enough negative externality for me to not want to live in a society where “prediction markets” are popular.

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kasey_junk11d ago

I personally think it’s ridiculous that we have allowed these prediction markets to subvert our sports betting laws. And meaningful corruption legislation should exist to prevent government and military personnel from profiting from them.

But if you are going to allow them at all, you want as much expertise as possible in them. Sharks eating minnows is what that looks like.

bentcorner11d ago

Makes me wonder if there's a bet you can take on Polymarket that Polymarket will get shut down due to it negatively influencing behavior. The insider trading on that one should get interesting.

amelius11d ago

Will it pay out if it is shut down though?

mr_00ff0011d ago

1. I believe you can bet on this

2. If it’s only banned in the US, yes it pays out, you just need to get a VPN or go to another country.

Also even it’s banned everywhere, the markets are blockchain contracts so you should be able to access it without the website, which is just the frontend. (this is where my technical expertise breaks down, someone who knows blockchain is a better expert)

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