Downvoters:
I really doubt that you actually successfully 100% banned anything in the history of technology.
Prediction markets on terrorist attacks and wars are one step back from that, but similar negative side effects are possible. And, regardless of what people are betting on, the corruption incentive appears where it did not previously, resulting in things like this.
(I don't think there's literally an Iranian missile operator opening Polymarket, taking out a position for "missile lands on Israel", and then pressing the launch button, but ultimately that's what uncensored markets with uncensored movement of money would enable)
2. The reason it is illegal it is beyond obvious: basic economics and game theory explain you how dangerous it is tying real world events with financial incentives.
You'll just push it underground and it will get even worse.
The cat is out of the bag.
What makes you think that driving betting underground (which means far fewer people will participate) would be worse than the status quo?
If your argument is "people are going to bet and influence world events on the dark web", the argument ignores economics.
The whole point is that the wrong financial incentives exist, the dark web does not provide them, it's hard to access and liquidity is small.
E.g. Trump insiders are unlikely to "tor their iran/venezuela predictions in Monero" and try to influence the events at the same time, let alone how complex would such a system be.
"Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing.
and where did I say I liked it?
Why do you (obviously) think betting markets are good?
