> The other world wars started as conflicts between two countries that expanded to take in their allies.

So if this is all you need then every conflict is a world war.

> Right now the West is desperately trying to walk a line of supplying Ukraine with money, weapons, and intelligence,

Desperately? It's been the status quo for four years. We're all just waiting out the Russian economy or Putin's cancer.

> They think that is what will trigger the World War cascade of allies.

Lol you mean Russia's mutual defense pact with Belarus? It's not like China or India give enough of a crap about Russia to do anything other than watch and laugh.