It's because the real value of the models is in what we (humanity) fed them, and all of them have eaten the same thing for free.
I don’t see the core models getting dramatically better from where they are now. We’ve clearly hit a plateau.
When I use the planning mode and then code the success rate is much higher. When I ask it to work on specific isolated chunks of code with clear success/failure modes the success rate is again much higher.
Now imagine a world where it recognizes that from my simple throw away non specific prompt. If it was able to fire off 20 different prompts in quick succession it could easily cut my time spent in front of the screen by a third.
The patterns are obvious but they don't do that right now because it's a lot of compute.
We'll be looking at this time where there's a progress bar showing context space the way we look at the Turbo button.
Because the truth is to get the baseline I'm talking about is a finite amount of compute at a certain point.
But no, businesses are dumb. They always have been. Existing businesses get disrupted by new ideas and new technology all the time. This very site is a temple to disruption!
Proprietary advantage is, 99.999% of the time, just structural advantage. You can't compete with Procter & Gamble because they already built their brands and factories and supply chains and you'd have to do all that from scratch while selling cheaper products as upstart value options. And there's not enough money in consumer junk to make that worth it.
But if you did have funding and wanted to beat them on first principles? Would you really start by training an LLM on what they're already doing? No, you'd throw money at a bunch of hackers from YC. Duh.
They are neck-and-neck only because they are participating in the arms race. The only other way to keep up is mass-distillation, which could prove to be fragile (so far it seems to be sustainable).
It's all remains free, but you need to email me for a username and password.
If I put in time and effort to make content and OpenAI et al copy it and sell it through their LLM such that no one comes to me any more, then plainly it makes no sense for me to create that content; and then it would not exist for OpenAI to take, or for anyone else. We all lose.
It seems parasitic.
Virtually no scraper has logic to handle that sort of situation, but it's trivial for humans. Way easier than an LLM
The reason is that I expect LLM bots to be crawling IA.
