Most people think bookmakers try to estimate the true probability of a match and then add a margin.
In practice, their real problem is predicting how people will bet.
A simple coin-flip example shows why:
Even with a 10% overround, if 80% of money lands on one side, the bookmaker becomes exposed to extreme short-term variance.
Three consecutive popular outcomes can wipe out the theoretical edge.
The article breaks down:
– why money distribution matters more than probability
– how emotional teams distort football markets
– why positive expected value does not prevent bankruptcy
Curious how people here see the analogy with market makers in financial markets.
Full breakdown here:
https://www.playaiodds.com/en/blog/money-made-on-public-bets
