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0 pointsJumpCrisscross2mo ago0 comments

> Iran has the capacity to end calm life in the GCC and possibly disrupt oil flows

I'm genuinely surprised the mines haven't rolled out, to the point that I believe they won't be. (They were–in the initial strikes–destroyed or incapacitated, or they never existed.)

> Iran was able to project its missile to several countries in a couple hours

To minimal effect. And every launch exposes a missile and firing team to American and Israeli jets flyig in uncontested airspace.

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chunky19942mo ago

There is credible reporting (Reuters etc.) that ships are being turned around, so it does appear that the mines (or at least threat thereof) have been deployed. Either way, as long as the threat of sinking is alive the strait is uninsurable and is for all practical purposes closed.

JumpCrisscrossOP2mo ago

> ships are being turned around, so it does appear that the mines (or at least threat thereof) have been deployed

I'd assume, until further evidence, it's because the Strait is an active war zone.

chunky19942mo ago

Fair point, but the IRGC telling ships to turn around, as opposed to the ships themselves doing it (as per reporting) would imply that the Strait has been blockaded in some fashion. It remains to be seen if this is all a bluff, I'm just as skeptical as this would be their last option, but given the strikes on other Gulf countries, the threat seems a bit more plausible of actually being real.

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chunky19942mo ago

JumpCrisscrossOP2mo ago

> ships are being turned around, so it does appear that the mines (or at least threat thereof) have been deployed

I'd assume, until further evidence, it's because the Strait is an active war zone.

chunky19942mo ago

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