But this means the market for SaaS products is going to get hit hugely. If you can vibecode up a specific service for your specific requirement in a few days, why bother buying a SaaS product?

And, of course, if you can build a me-too SaaS product that imitates a successful competitor over a weekend, and then price it at 10% of their price, that's going to hit business models.

I think the SaaS startup gravy train is definitely over and done.

Personally, my sense is that there's a lot left to do in batteries + motors + LLMs. The drones in Ukraine could be smarter. Robot companions that can hold a conversation. Voice interfaces for robots generally [0]. Unfortunately, the people making all the batteries, motors, and increasingly the LLMs, are in China. So those of us stuck with idiot governments protecting their fossil-fuel donors are going to miss out on it.

[0] the sketch of two scots in a voice-controlled lift still resonates, though. There's probably still work to do here.

This is the thing that keeps me up at night. Tech has allowed a very solid middle class lifestyle for a lot of people. I can't think of another good paying job where someone is self-taught, or went to a 12-month certificate program at their local community college and now has a very good career.

If those jobs disappear, or wage growth is non-existent, I don't know where the next generation will find those jobs.

There are still (always?) business opportunites to leverage technology, in what we used to think was a virtuous loop of positive feedback.

If corporates are going to build AIs to attempt to sell things to people, there's going to be an opportunity for AIs that work for an individual, a "de-enshittifier" for example.

The "big model providers" right now aren't necessarily the actual ones that will persist. We're in another dotcom-type boom and when the tide goes out, some of them will have been swimming naked.