They disagree on the timelines, the architectures, the exact steps to get there, the severity of risks. Can you get there with modified LLMs by 2030, or would you need to develop novel systems and ride all the way to 2050? Is there a 5% chance of an AI oopsie ending humankind, or a 25% chance? No agreement on that.
But a short line "AGI is possible, powerful and perilous" is something 9 out of 10 of frontier AI researchers at the frontier labs would agree upon.
At which point the question becomes: is it them who are deluded, or is it you?
If you claim "AGI is possible" without knowing how we'll actually get there you're just writing science fiction. Which is fine, but I'd really rather we don't bet the economy on it.
Would not having a complete foolproof step by step plan to obtaining a nuclear bomb somehow make me wrong then?
The so-called "plan" is simply "fund the R&D, and one of the R&D teams will eventually figure it out, and if not, then, at least some of the resources we poured into it would be reusable elsewhere". Because LLMs are already quite useful - and there's no pathway to getting or utilizing AGI that doesn't involve a lot of compute to throw at the problem.
> At which point the question becomes: is it them who are deluded, or is it you?
Given the current very asymptotic curve of LLM quality by training, and how most of the recent improvements have been better non LLM harnesses and scaffolding. I don't find the argument that transformer based Generative LLMs are likely to ever reach something these labs would agree is AGI (unless they're also selling it as it)
Then, you can apply the same argument to Natural General Intelligence. Humans can do both impressive and scary stuff.
I'll ignore the made up 5 and 25%, and instead suggest that pragmatic and optimistic/predictive world views don't conflict. You can predict the magic word box you feel like you enjoy is special and important, making it obvious to you AGI is coming. While it also doesn't feel like a given to people unimpressed by it's painfully average output. The problem being the optimism that Transformer LLMs will evolve into AGI requires a break through that the current trend of evidence doesn't support.
Will humans invent AGI? I'd bet it's a near certainty. Is general intelligence impressive and powerful? Absolutely, I mean look, Organic general intelligence invented artificial general intelligence in the future... assuming we don't end civilization with nuclear winter first...
Recent improvements being somehow driven by harnesses and scaffolding rather than training?
With that last bit, I'm confident that you're not in ML, and not even keeping track of the things from what's known to public.
> At which point the question becomes: is it them who are deluded, or is it you?
No one. It is always "possible". Ask me 20 years ago after watching a sci-fi movie and I'd say the same.
Just like with software projects estimating time doesn't work reliably for R&D.
We'll still get full self-driving electric cars and robots next year too. This applies every year.
I've taken a Waymo and it seemed pretty self driving.
You can never figure out if the people selling something are lying about it's capabilities, or if they've actually invented a new form of intelligence that can rival or surpass billions of years of evolution?
I'd like to introduce you to Occam Razor
Human creations have surpassed billions of years of evolution at several functions. There are no rockets in nature, nor animals flying at the speed of a common airliner. Even cars, or computers or everything in the modern world.
I think this is a bit like the shift from anthropocentric view of intelligence towards a new paradigm. The last time such shift happened heads rolled.
> I'm asking whether they are knowingly deceiving people or whether they have deluded themselves into believing what they are saying.
I'd bet it's both. Engineers/people making it, are drowning in the hype. Combined with the notion of how hard it is understand something when your salary, or your stock options are based on your lack of understanding. I suspect they care more about building the cool thing, than the nuance they're ignoring to make all the misleading or optimistic claims; whichever side you take depending on how much you actually believe of the inevitability... which look exactly like lies if you're not drinking the koolaid. But expected excitement when your life is all about this "magic"
