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0 pointsgraemep1mo ago0 comments

The time when Europe had the capability to go off on adventures of its own or be a threat to the US is past. European economies are no longer big enough proportionately. Compare a lit of the world's largest economies from 40 years ago to now.

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T-A1mo ago

In purchasing power parity terms, a glance at Wikipedia yields

China: $43.491 trillion [1]

USA: $31.821 trillion [2]

EU: $30.184 trillion [3]

UK: $4.59 trillion [4]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

graemepOP1mo ago

Now compare that to the same numbers from 40 years ago.

Then do the same with nominal GDP which is a better measure for this IMO as you cannot buy anything in global markets at PPP.

T-A1mo ago

> Now compare that to the same numbers from 40 years ago.

That turns out to be easier than I thought thanks to [1]. In 1986 it looked like this (PPP, million USD):

China: 647,219

USA: 4,579,625

EU ex UK: 4,368,019

UK: 805,518

EU total: 5,173,537 [2]

The big standout is obviously China's rise since then.

> Then do the same with nominal GDP which is a better measure for this IMO as you cannot buy anything in global markets at PPP.

I disagree; we are comparing three global powers which would be quite capable of satisfying their needs internally if need be. Feel free to post your own calculations if you want, but be careful with dates and exchange rates; the USD index is down about 9% over the past year.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_...

[2] In 1986, the EU had 12 members: Belgium (161,613), Denmark (100,996), France (866,333), West Germany (1,319,247), Greece (120,566), Ireland (40,169), Italy (953,257), Luxembourg (10,542), Netherlands (246,164), Portugal (92,824), Spain (456,308) and UK (805,518):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_enlargement_of_the_Europe...

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Swenrekcah1mo ago

It seemed like it was the past, but it might become so again. Europe will never trust the US for defence again, which means it has to build up all defence capabilities internally. This will take many many years, but it seems almost inevitable now that it will happen.

When enough time has passed with Europe self sufficient in defence, there might arise cases where US and Europe has a conflict of interest that results in an armed conflict. Perhaps at first via proxy states depending on the type of conflict.

saubeidl1mo ago

Europe is taking over America's back yard as we speak. Power isn't just raw numbers. It's bureaucracy and shaping the rules of engagement.

https://apnews.com/article/mercosur-european-union-trade-agr...

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