Second depends. If you told them to pretrain for writing C compiler however long it takes, I could see a smaller team doing it in a week or two. Keep in mind LLMs pretrain on all OSS including GCC.

> Meanwhile, at every step of the way these things become better and better.

Will they? Or do they just ingest more data and compute?[1] Again, time will tell. But to me this seems more like speed-running into an Idiocracy scenario than a revolution.[2]

I think this will turn out another driverless car situation where last 1% needs 99% of the time. And while it might happen eventually it's going to take extremely long time.

[1] Because we don't have much more computing jumps left, nor will future data be as clean as now.

[2] Why idiocracy?

Because they are polluting their own corpus of data. And by replacing thinking about computers, there will be no one to really stop them.

We'll equalize the human and computer knowledge by making humans less knowledgeable rather than more.

So you end up in an Idiocracy-like scenario where a doctor can't diagnose you, nor can the machine because it was dumbed down by each successive generation, until it resembles a child's toy.