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0 pointsfalloutx1mo ago0 comments

> Small companies using AI are going to kick the sh*t out of large companies that are slow to adapt.

Big companies are sales machines and their products have been terrible for ages. Microsoft enjoys the top spot in software sales only due to their sales staff pushing impossible deals every year.

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YZF1mo ago

It's true the big company products have been terrible but they also enjoyed a moat that made it harder for competitors to enter.

With this moat reduced I think you'll find this approach doesn't work any more. The smaller companies will also hire the good sales people away.

jdub1mo ago

History suggests otherwise, and there's nothing particularly special about this moment.

Microsoft survived (and even, for a little while, dominated) after missing the web. Netscape didn't eat its lunch.

Then Google broke out on a completely different front.

Now there's billions of dollars of investment in "AI", hoping to break out like the next Google... while competing directly with Google.

(This is why we should be more ambitious about constraining large companies and billionaires.)

YZF1mo ago

Well, I made my predictions. Let's come back in a few years.

Netscape didn't attack Microsoft's business software, operating systems or other pieces of their offerings.

Google also didn't seriously attack Microsoft's business.

And neither had the capability to build large software very fast.

Google is both a software company and an infrastructure company as is Microsoft today. Their software is going to become more of a commodity but their data centers still have value (even perhaps more value since all this new software needs a place to run). It's true that if you're in the business of hosting software and selling SaaS you have an advantage over a competitor who does not host their own software.

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YZF1mo ago

It's true the big company products have been terrible but they also enjoyed a moat that made it harder for competitors to enter.

With this moat reduced I think you'll find this approach doesn't work any more. The smaller companies will also hire the good sales people away.

jdub1mo ago

History suggests otherwise, and there's nothing particularly special about this moment.

Microsoft survived (and even, for a little while, dominated) after missing the web. Netscape didn't eat its lunch.

Then Google broke out on a completely different front.

Now there's billions of dollars of investment in "AI", hoping to break out like the next Google... while competing directly with Google.

(This is why we should be more ambitious about constraining large companies and billionaires.)

YZF1mo ago

Well, I made my predictions. Let's come back in a few years.

Netscape didn't attack Microsoft's business software, operating systems or other pieces of their offerings.

Google also didn't seriously attack Microsoft's business.

And neither had the capability to build large software very fast.

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse